|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Received: from accessone.com (list.listserver.com [198.68.191.15]) by mail.hub.ofthe.net (8.8.7/8.6.12) with ESMTP id KAA10905 for <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 5 Jul 1998 10:52:50 -0500 (CDT)
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with SMTP id IAA17035;
Sun, 5 Jul 1998 08:43:39 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from smtp4.nwnexus.com (smtp4.nwnexus.com [206.63.63.52])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with ESMTP id IAA16724
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 5 Jul 1998 08:37:42 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from halcyon.com (blv-lx102-ip25.nwnexus.net [206.63.41.25])
by smtp4.nwnexus.com (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id IAA21850;
Sun, 5 Jul 1998 08:37:37 -0700 (PDT)
Message-Id: <359F9D4F.871D3A28@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 05 Jul 1998 08:35:43 -0700
Reply-To: oldfogey@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Richard Josslin <oldfogey@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Gen: Amount of time required for success.
References: <199807050808.CAA14918@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1
X-To: brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (WinNT; I)
X-Listprocessor-Version: 8.1 -- ListProcessor(tm) by CREN
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by accessone.com id LAA14066
Dear Brent & Group.
My path:
78-79: The Hunt Bros.-induced run-up in precious metals caught my eye. I
began studying about futures and, later, began paper-trading silver futures,
buying at 6, 8, 10, 12, & 20. When silver hit 50, my $10K hypothetical
account had $1 million in paper profits. I was hooked! Although I continued
to read about and study futures, I didn't get further involved for a few
years, as I was then just starting a new business.
82-84: My business had gotten going, so I increased my involvement with
futures. I joined Tim Slater's trading group (CompuTrac), bought an Apple II
computer, got overnight data from Bob Pellitier's Florida data company (CSI),
went bananas playing with every indicator in the Computrac program, cobbled
together a trading program, opened a futures account, and began trading. When
I got home from work, I'd download that day's data (by modem), run my
automatic analysis program with my Apple computer, have dinner, and,
thereafter, analyse the print-outs, and call my trades into to my broker,
leaving a message on his answering machine. The following afternoon, my
broker would call me and tell me how they did. I made 200-300% annual return
on my account during this period. Parenthetically, my success here was due to
10% of my trades making 90% of my money, with the rest either winning or
losing a few $100 --- this was just the experience that Richard Dennis (the
"Turtles" guy) said that he had trading at that time. Although I was making
money, I wanted more consistency, and I thought that I could find that
daytrading. In retrospect, I now question whether I just should have left
everything alone and been happy making 200-300% annually, spending no more
than 30-60 minutes daily on it. Ah, hindsight! but then I would have missed
all the adventure in the years to come!
84-85: Flushed with success, I bought an IBM XT computer and CompuTrac's
realtime program, subscribed to Market Information for satellite service, and
repeated the prior process except for trading. Living in LA allowed me to
follow the Bond/Currency/SP markets for several hours before I had to leave
for work. Spring, 85: I began trading and made modest profits. Fall, 85: I
closed down my business and began trading full-time. Parenthetically, during
this period, the S&P market was in a long-term trading range between 160 &
180; it's daily range was usually 2-3 basis points, occasionally up to 5; it's
margin was around $5K. A $100K account would have allowed buying 20
contracts, say at 180, which now, with the S&P around 1180, would result in
profits of 20 contracts x 1000 basis points/contract x $500/basis point = $10
million from $100,000 in 13 years. I think I could retire on that!
85-92: I day-traded primarily the S&P market, generating great heat but very
little light. My approach was entirely based on indicators, using computers
and computer programs (initially all "canned" programs; later on, my own).
Early on, I switched from the CompuTrac realtime program to a program produced
by Roberts/Slade ("Market Master", as I recall), and when TradeStation came
out, I switched to that (as well as more powerful computers, from time to
time). Meanwhile, Market Information was acquired by Bonneville, which
became Bonneville/Market Information (BMI), which has since been gobbled up by
DBC (Signal). In 92, for a variety of reasons (including that my then wife
had simply lost patience with me for spending so much time on my research and
trading and with my producing so little money to show for it), I separated and
later divorced.
92-94: I took a 2-year holiday from the futures market, dealing with my
separation and divorce.
94-96: I returned to the futures market, but realized that I could not return
to my prior work, with its old beliefs; namely, I needed to break out from my
dependence on indicators and computer programs. I began watching the market
with nothing but price charts, began noticing recurring patterns in the
charts, and spent several years turning them into a trading program.
96-current: Let me summarize it as follows:
"What's nice about finding your own voice is that it puts you out of the
competition. This is who you are and you trust that, and you're no longer
competing with other people in subject matter or anything else, because you
can't do what they do, and they can't do what you do." Author unknown.
I do hope that many others of you have found a degree of success that
satisfies you, and that you have done so in far less time than I took. I
realize that I am an independent, bullheaded, old fart, and that my answer to
adversity has all too often been to keep smashing my head against the stone
wall ... to drop my bulldozer down into compound low, lower the blade, and
floor it. In retrospect, I believe that one of the unforeseen benefits for me
of my separation and divorce (25-year marriage, two kids) was that it gave me
the opportunity to realize that I needed to change my personal style. I did.
In the trading arena, for example, from trying to conquer the markets with
numbers and computer analysis, to learning how to listen to the market and
hear where she wants to go ... and from then, it's just a matter of following
(and shutting up, and not asking any questions, and, generally, not getting in
the way). It works. It took me a long, long time, but, hallelujah, I
finally got it. On the one hand, it cost me my marriage and my kids. On the
other hand, I have since remarried, and this marriage is stronger, and, what
do you know but, double hallelujah, my kids (they're now 21 and 23) have begun
speaking to their old man, and their comments seem to be, "Who are you?
You've changed!" Life goes on.
Sincerely,
Richard Josslin
BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> RT’s
>
> We all know about the small percent of successful traders(approx. 10%).
> What I am thinking about is the average amount of time that this group of
> traders spent studying, training, and trading before they became
> successful. I don’t know of any official answer. Does anyone know, care to
> guess or want to give an educated guess?
>
> Brent
|