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The question of reliability of SM arises quite often.
Frankly I don't know -- very hard to measure something
that provides dynamic measurements.
However, look at attached for 1987. Three of 5 swings
anticipated a one month reversal only and then higher
prices -- BUT, two called for much lower prices IF THE
PRICES IN OCTOBER, 1987 (at any time) CAME IN LOWER THAN
THE LOW FOR SEPTEMBER, 1987.
It was very apparent very early in October 1997 that we
were not going to have a one month reversal and therefore
should look for a significant down move.
Reliable or not -- you decide.
Clyde Lee
Renate Muldowney wrote:
>
> Clyde
> how reliable is this?
> RM
>
> At 12:25 PM 7/18/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >Now having had time to examine an analysis based on monthly
> >data it is time to examine a shorter time frame.
> >
> >The attached analysis was accomplished by setting SM up to
> >do a rolling 10 bar representation of the data and then
> >pick peaks and troughs from that and assign the exact point
> >of inflection from an analysis of the daily bars. It is
> >kind of like making a channel of 10 bar highest highs and
> >10 bar lowest lows and treating these as daily highs and
> >lows for purposes of determining inflection points.
> >
> >In this case from 1921 to present there were 91 patterns
> >which began with a 94 leg. These patterns were sorted and
> >averaged into a set of 7 possible patterns of what might
> >happen after the last turning point.
> >
> >As of today only 3 of the 7 patterns are possible (time has
> >run out on 4 of them).
> >
> >The most BULLISH pattern left would top out in about 6 1/2
> >weeks near the 9950 level.
> >
> >The other two patterns both top out near 9425-9475 and the
> >tops are projected in 1 1/2 and 3 weeks.
> >
> >Remember, ALL PROJECTIONS ARE SIMPLY AVERAGING OF PAST
> >PATTERNS WITH SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS. No "magic" just
> >"fact".
> >
> >Clyde Lee
> >
> >
> >--
> >- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> >SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
> >7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
> >Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> >- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >Attachment Converted: "e:\eudora\attach\djda0718.gif"
> >
--
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\djmo0987.gif"
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