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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
7 / 13 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 7/6 through 7/12 on our web site.
Number of participants: 344
30 day outlook:
50 % bullish, 54% last week
19 % bearish, 27% last week
32 % neutral, 20% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 7/17: 9166 (it was 9115
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
Last week we thought the sentiment numbers were giving a pretty clear buy
signal, and the DJIA was up 80 points on the week. This week's numbers are
not so clear cut. In fact, the sentiment picture is the most interesting in
recent memory. As we said, the DJIA was up 80 points last week, yet
bullish sentiment dropped by 4%. This is the second consecutive week that
sentiment has dropped in the face of a rising market. This is the type of
sentiment number that usually has our buy side trigger finger feeling
pretty itchy. But look at the bearish numbers this week, almost
non-existant at 19%, a worrisome level for the bulls. And finally, we have
a high neutral reading at 32%, a level that has us looking for increased
volatility.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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