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Coming off the June 15 lows, on the Zone Timer, the OEWGD July 520 calls have
gone from 18 to over 50. The saturation in the Zone Timer in the Extremely
Overbought zone is a caution flag for being long. At the least it means to
become a bit more defensive. Puts can pay off in sharp drops in price whether
or not multiday downtrends develop. With the VIX at 17.79 premiums are not as
rich as they were in the mid to high 20's. A drop in the index in the next
few weeks should provide August puts with a double barreled gain with the
increase in volatility that accompanies downdrafts.
BobR
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