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I'm using a back adjusted CC and don't see a 7 year double bottom. I have bottom
in Aug 87 and rising bottoms in Apr 91, Aug 93, and Jul 95 with the last two
being nicely contained by a linear regression channel off the bottom. The whole
thing on a monthly chart looks like a very bullish rounded bottom. The channel
was broken to downside in Apr 98 and retested/failed by the rally in May 98 so I
have to consider the long term as bearish. Some weeks ago I suggested that we
might see a rally to the 850 area but was frankly surprised by the strength of
the rally in continuing above 900 and the accompanying confirmation by OBV. We
have been bouncing around the .38 fib retracement of the 91-96 rally so we could
hold here. A break here could very well take us to the .62 fib retracement in
the 550 area. For the moment, a decline to 780 and perhaps to 692 is likely,
however I still don't like the odds here for a short trade.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: T-BONDTRADER <T-BONDTRADER@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, July 08, 1998 6:21 AM
Subject: Re: Sugar - Long or Short a la EW?
>Hi Guys
>
>This Sugar biz looks interesting!
>
>BUT...
>
>Are we long (off a 7-year double bottom) or are we short on an A,B,C
>correction (if that's the term)? Seems to me to be rather important...
>
>Of more importance, however, is what money management do you position guys
>use on a longish term trade like this? It seems to me that one would have
>to withstand considerable margin, on the assumption that the analysis is
>right. I have no idea on the fundamentals of sugar, but from a t/a
>standpoint a 7-year double bottom deserves consideration - particularly if
>you EW guys have played out a 5-wave cycle to the downside.
>
>What is a basis point worth on Sugar?
>
>Curiously,
>
>Bill Eykyn
>
>PS. Sorry about the capitals and the title name - all part of things going
>wrong. Hopefully it will be sorted out and I'll be back to my normal
>surname shortly.
>
>
>
>
>
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