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I've seen more people get hot about systems and systems trading then
anything else, seems to really stir some people up. The problem with asking
for a really good losing system is that it's as hard to find an excellent
looser as an excellent winner. It only follows that if you have and
excellent loser you can just reverse the signals and now you have a winner.
This was hashed out previously on the forum. Generally, what makes most
systems fail is the human element combined with the mechanics of trading.
So if you ask for a really terrible system you are essentially asking for
someone’s really good system and very few want to do that.
Regards,
Brent
----------
> From: Rob <sp500@xxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Give me a break
> Date: Wednesday, July 08, 1998 1:54 PM
>
> Enough all ready !!!!!!
>
> I think we all know what Walk Forward means.
>
> If you don't, then you should not be trading with a system.
>
> Id like to thank Bill for trying to do something new.
>
> It really makes me laugh when someone is doing something for FREE like
> posting there systems signals in real time. Then people challenge him for
> some stupid reason. I asked for all of your help on "The Worst Stock
> Trading system" and received NO help what so ever!!!!
>
> I makes me wonder why I stay on this list.
>
> Another example of what I am complaining about, is the discussion about
the
> amount of time a person works at trading . Some of the post stated that
if
> you work for many hours then you will be successful. Well here is the
> answer. If you work for 3.34543 hours then you will be successful. Any
less
> than that and you will fail. Any more than that and your draw downs will
> suffer.
>
> Trust me I optimized this on tradstation. Oh by the way I think I over
> optimized it. Maybe we should have 27 post about my optimizing of the
time
> it takes to analyze each trade.
>
> Lets all get REAL. Lets post stuff that will really help each other.
Trust
> me if you have a good trading idea and you let others in on your big
secret
> it wont hurt your trading.
>
> Rob
>
>
> At 12:13 PM 7/8/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >Paul,
> >Thanks! That is exactly what I am doing on my web site. I am making
the
> >signals ( entries, stops, etc ) all know on my website the day before
the
> >are needed. That's about as close to real trading as I can get on such
a
> >site ( that I know of any way ). Thanks again for your comments.
> >
> >All the Best!
> >Bill Shumake
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Paul Brittian <tradeblt@xxxxxxx>
> >To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 10:53 PM
> >Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
> >
> >
> >>Gentlemen,
> >>The only way a "walk forward" system has any validity is if all the
> >>market entry signals as well as the stop losses are posted and
published
> >>before entering the market. This method is far more real than the CFTC
> >>and NFA required VAMI or CTA diaclosure.
> >>Paul Brittain
> >>http://www.tradeblt.com
> >>
> >>bshumake wrote:
> >>>
> >>> To All RealTraders:
> >>>
> >>> I have apparently misused the term walk-forward testing, when I
should
> >have
> >>> said "paper trade" or "simulated trading." All my we site is doing
is
> >>> taking a purely mechanical trading system that I developed and is now
> >"paper
> >>> trading" the signals generated by it for all to see. The system is
not
> >>> being change or optimized in any way. Please note that I have NOT
used
> >>> optimization in the development of this system. So I guess I am not
> >>> "walk-forward" testing this system, I am just hypothetically trading
the
> >>> signals it generates to see if it makes money and inviting everyone
to
> >>> watch. The system lives or dies by it's own merits, but I am not
trying
> >to
> >>> optimize it. Just paper trading to see if it makes money. Sorry for
the
> >>> misused term, I did not mean to cause such confusion. Now...let's
see
> >what
> >>> happens with these paper trades.
> >>>
> >>> All the Best !
> >>> Bill Shumake
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: Bill Bancroft <bancroft@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>> Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 4:02 PM
> >>> Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
> >>>
> >>> >Walk-forward testing is where one optimizes a system over the most
> >recent
> >>> >time-period and then uses the parameters generated by the
optimization
> >for
> >>> >the next time period. For example, consider a simple moving average
> >>> >crossover system. It buys when the price is above the average, and
> >sells
> >>> >when price is below the average. Let's say we want to use
walk-forward
> >>> >testing to arrive at the length of the average. We would take the
last
> >>> >year's of data and optimize to find out what moving average length
was
> >the
> >>> >most profitable. We would then trade that moving average for this
> >coming
> >>> >year. At the end of this year (and every future year), we would
repeat
> >>> this
> >>> >process. So we could be trading a 10-day average in 1998, but in
1999,
> >we
> >>> >could be trading a 20 day average.
> >>> >
> >>> >Regards,
> >>> >
> >>> >Bill Bancroft
> >>> >
> >>> >BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> >>> >
> >>> >> I have never understood this walk forward stuff and a quick search
of
> >the
> >>> >> web turned up nothing. Would anyone care to elaborate.
> >>> >>
> >>> >> Brent
> >>> >>
> >>> >> > Walk forward is a hoax and a sad one at that. Walk forward means
to
> >>> >> reoptimize the system on new
> >>> >> > data as the new data is available.
> >>> >
> >>> >
> >>> >
> >
> >
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