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Sorry Richard ,
but I canīt agree with you on that one. Since there is no way of
predicting the most probable outcome it really doesnīt matter how the
market acts, its just important how you react to it. So you donīt need
to try to find the most probable scenario, you just need a plan for each
possible scenario. By concentrating on the most possible scenario, you
influence your psychological standpoint in a way that narrows your
ability towards the other outcomes, which can be very hazardous.
Regards - Ulrich
Richard Majewski wrote:
> The reason why it's not so easy is that there are always a number of
> possible
> outcomes of every scenario. Unless you have a strategy which is able
> to pick the more
> likely outcome with grater than random probability and capitilize on
> it, then
> ultimately you will loose.
>
> Pete Halllock wrote:
> >
> > Paul,
> >
> > It amazes me to see the huge variety of "packaging" methods and hype
>
> > associated with so many of the systems and strategies being offered
> for
> > sale. But it has to be that way because if most traders knew that
> there
> > really is less than meets the eye to successful trading then how
> could
> > one sell this stuff.
> >
> > Please correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that every
> profitable
> > trader does the same thing:
> >
> > 1. finds a trending market and enters on a pullback
> > Option 2. After entering the market the trend does not resume.
>
>
>
> > 2. or finds a trading range market and trades the swings
> >
>
> Option 2. Market breaks out into a trend
>
> > 3. or finds a potential breakout situation and goes with
> the
> > flow
>
> Option 2. The market fails to follow through.
> >
> > 4. or finds what looks like a top or bottom formation and
> > climbs on for the return trip.
> >
>
> Option 2. Unfortunately it was only a consolidation and the
> market does not
> reverse.
> Option 3.
> Option ...
>
> > Pete
>
> --
> ,-._|\ Richard
> / Oz \
> \_,--.x/
> v
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