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RT's,
I have on several occasions talked about the Bull and my apprehensions
regarding its future. I am not one of those that has a year 2000 phobia. If
concerns can be demonstrated to be real such as the y2k bug then that is
something to consider if not I don’t fear the round number. I fully expect
some will pull there money from the markets before New Years day 2000 and
go set in a cave. I have thought a lot about the market crash in 1929 and
wondered, was there any mechanism for hedging back then like options,
index futures, etc? How would that effect a crash?
Or how about this, lets say you’re heavily short and it totally crashes are
you going to be holding a bunch of “I owe you’s”?
If it were 1929 and the crash were coming this fall would everyone think it
was mania? I think not. I think it's like musical chairs but that last one
sitting loses instead of wins.
2 cents,
Brent
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> From: Dennis Conn <dconn@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Bull Mania Alive and Well
> Date: Tuesday, June 23, 1998 3:00 PM
>
> A.J.,
>
> If the common perception of the stock market is one of speculation
without
> risk, at least as far as buy-and-hold sales pitches imply, then what IS
> "unreasonable enthusiasm"? It seems to me that the definition validates
the
> opinion that the current lofty levels of the market, combined with the
> continued inflow of funds from an ob-sessed public, constitute a mania in
> the classic sense of the word.
>
> Awaiting the inevitable condemnation,
>
> Dennis C.
> dconn@xxxxxxxxx
>
> >
> > I guess this depends on how "mania" is to be understood. "Excessive or
> unreasonable
> > enthusiasm" is what the dictionary tells us - I'd want to say that in
> this case it
> > is neither. Looking at prices in terms of "intrinsic value" is out of
> touch, as it
> > neglects to account for the driving force behind markets today, which
is
> capital
> > accumulation, with dividends only representing a paltry amount of total
> expected
> > return. The "mania" is the reality here.
> >
> > Regards,
> > A.J.
> >
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