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I thought I'd follow up on the previous S&P/DJII posts as well(see
below).......
This is a very similar pattern to the T-Bonds.......first leg down on both
the S&P and T-Bonds were a clear 3 wave affair leading us to the conclusion
that we will see new highs(already have on the T-Bonds)......
The trendline breakout of about 1138.00 on the SPU8 should be good for new
highs........
This may be coming sooner rather than later..........
Why???????????
1)Look at your relative strength between the S&P and DJII.....now look at
your relative strength between the Nasdaq and the DJII........notice
anything??????????
The broader based indexes are much stronger than the 30 Industrials.......
2)We are at the end of a quarter.....very poor time to look to short the
stock market.........
3)Market is shrugging off all bad news...ie:Asia-no one cares at this
time....Clinton-no
one cares at this time.....tech-stock earnings-no one cares at this
time....look at Intel,Dell etc.......they are going up....
Easiest thing to do is let the market tell us....watch for the trendline
break-out.......
Tom Stein
comfut@xxxxxxx
POST from 5/8/98........
This is the tough part of using Elliot Wave to make
$$$$$$$$$$.....................
My take is that the Dow Jones just finished either the entire Wave 5 from
the 8000
breakout (see my previous posts below) or we just finished wave 3 of 5 and
are about to enter a very frustrating sideways triangle wave 4 that will
move the Dow Jones
from 9300-8800....back and forth 3 to 5 times before the final explosion to
quite possibly 10,000.......The S&P cash seems to be ahead of this and is
further along in the wave 4 status....we'll see....I don't know if this
helps anyone make any $$$$$....except that if we trace out this triangle and
make new highs later in the summer....it might be an excellent place to take
some $$$$ off the table....tighten stops etc......the great thing about
these triangle type patterns is that they alert us to 2
scenarios........1)there is a big thrust out of them....2)the thrust will be
followed by a terminal move that will be entirely
retraced....ie:IF the above scenario is correct.....after the final thrust
up we may retrace all the way back down to 8800 and maybe even below 8000 on
the Dow Jones...........
Tom Stein
comfut@xxxxxxx
PREVIOUS POSTS RE: ELLIOT WAVE
Because I've gotten more questions re: my Jan. post(included below).....I
thought I'd answer to the group.........
First I must say that when I posted in Jan. I thought I was being realistic
even though the "numbers" seemed unrealistic to my own mind. I mostly
day-trade the S&P's and have NOT made as many points as would have been
possible by taking my own advice.....
The questions that I have been getting, center around "Is this THE top????"
NO ONE KNOWS......My last post was based on the market completing a triangle
that took almost an entire year to form....We have now entered the target
are for the thrust out of the triangle..
Can we go further up???? Of course we can......
Is it dangerous to remain long???? Yes, but that is why placing stops makes
it less so.
When will we top out???? When everyone you know is in........
When you get involved in a mania...Sugar in the 70's....Gold/Silver in the
70's...California real estate in the 70's...Coffee a few years
back...etc........ The people who will make the most money are the one's who
have no idea of the consequences....If they did...they would be scared and
would get out.......
What to do???? IF you choose to ride this "wild bull", use stops...you will
also, leave money on the table, but you will feel more comfortable....If you
want to try and short the
market, also, use stops.........My gut feeling is that the best time for at
least a very sharp
and quick correction will be after the quarterly money flows subside(after
4/5)..........
Watch also, for market behavior to change...ie:good news does nothing and
bad news really is bad(won't that be a switch?)
Hope this helps......
Tom Stein
comfut@xxxxxxx
Post from Jan.
>From my view....the S&P's have a very high probability of taking out
the high's and thrusting up to possibly 1100-1150 this year.....why?????
Every decline that we have had since the high....has been a 3 wave
affair....I believe what most of you have been describing is a triangle
pattern...which is often a hesitation pattern.....which is usually resolved
in a thrust in the direction of the previous trend.......
Since this triangle pattern has been forming for over 5 months now....
the thrust out of it should be quite powerful.........
I would take a break above the highs in the S&P as a very bullish
event......for the Dow the break would be around 8000.
Often...the thrust out of these triangles is similar to the distance of the
first leg of the triangle....about 150 S&P points...1200 Dow points......
Think also, about this point...it works on stocks...futures...etc.....
IF what you perceive to be a negative event(Asia, Clinton) results in a
market acting positively....you better cover shorts and get long....the
market is telling you that it doesn't care....the market is always
correct...I'm not.
Just an idea.....Tom Stein comfut@xxxxxxx
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