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Short The Dollar



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<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Listened to an interesting discussion on CNBC 
yesterday. The</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>discussion was about the value of the yen versus the 
dollar. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>The angle they were discussing was related to Japanese 
banks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Apparently Japanese banks must maintain reserves equal 
to</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>10% of their outsatnding loans. These reserves are 
expressed in</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>yen. Whereas, the loans are expressed in dollars. When 
the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>yen weakens to a 149/150 level the banks will be forced 
to</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>take further action.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Does anyone know of any warrants that short the dollar 
vs the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>yen. I feel that at some point soon either the Japanese 
or</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>G7 countries will step in to prop up the yen. This move 
may</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>very provide only temporary relief for the yen, 
however</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>it may just be time enough to profit from such a 
move.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Anyone make a case against this scenario ? Would 
like</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>to weigh your ideas.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Jun 16 15:14:09 1998
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Date: Tue, 16 Jun 1998 16:06:50 -0500
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From: Essan Soobratty <trader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Short The Dollar
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William,

<P>The movement in $yen will only affect the reserves that must be put
aside against loans made in $.&nbsp;&nbsp; The only immediate balance sheet
implications due to yen depreciation in this respect will be that the banks
will need to curtail their lending in order to maintain capital ratio's.&nbsp;
They face the problem that a weaker yen will lead to a weaker nikkei which
in turn will also erode capital ratio's further.&nbsp; Until the Japanese
banks are able to lend domestically more librally (amongst other things)
will Japan be able to pull itself out of the current slump.&nbsp; More
capital investment will lead to more profits, will lead to more libral
spending etc etc.

<P>Regarding a turnaround in $Yen.&nbsp; There needs to be the perception
that something fundamentally will improve in Japan in order to turn sentiment.&nbsp;
In the meantime the trend will remain for a weaker yen.&nbsp; Do not confuse
a retracement in $yen for a change in trend.&nbsp; The trend will change
only when the trend changes.&nbsp; Not before.

<P>E.

<P>William L. Mabee wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>&nbsp;<FONT COLOR="#000000">Listened to an interesting
discussion on CNBC yesterday. The</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">discussion
was about the value of the yen versus the dollar.</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT COLOR="#000000">The
angle they were discussing was related to Japanese banks.</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">Apparently
Japanese banks must maintain reserves equal to</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">10%
of their outsatnding loans. These reserves are expressed in</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">yen.
Whereas, the loans are expressed in dollars. When the</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">yen
weakens to a 149/150 level the banks will be forced to</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">take
further action.</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT COLOR="#000000">Does anyone know of any
warrants that short the dollar vs the</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">yen.
I feel that at some point soon either the Japanese or</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">G7
countries will step in to prop up the yen. This move may</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">very
provide only temporary relief for the yen, however</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">it
may just be time enough to profit from such a move.</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT COLOR="#000000">Anyone
make a case against this scenario ? Would like</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">to
weigh your ideas.</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
&nbsp;
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Jun 16 20:36:32 1998
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Date: Tue, 16 Jun 1998 17:31:08 -0500
Reply-To: clydelee@xxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: GEN - SwingMachine how to get program.
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I appreciate all the mail that I have gotten requesting
the SWINGMACHINE program.  Individual emails was just
impossible SO:

If you think I am kind for giving away this program then
you should really thank  Gary Funk   (he has done an awful
lot for this list and others)  for providing a ftp site
where I could place the program in a   .zip   file and
the initial instructions in the   READ_ME.TXT  file.

You will need to download BOTH files.  Do the Zip file
first and save it to a directory called SWNGMACH on your
root directory.   Be sure to make this as a NEW DIRECTORY
before you start to download.

After you get the SWNGMACH.ZIP file and it is saved then
download the   READ_ME.TXT  and follow it's simple
instructions.



Click on the following to download.  


ftp://www.intrepid.com/pub/clyde


Please use and discuss this program among yourselves
for the time being.  I really am snowed under but will
be happy to hear how you do with the SwingMachine.

If you are unsure of how to download -- ask someone
near you to help.


-- 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee   Chairman/CEO        (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation              email:   <clydelee@xxxxxxx> 
7910 Westglen, Suite 105        Work:    (713) 783-9540
Houston,  TX  77063             Fax:     (713) 783-1092     
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