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Earl -
The mania idea is interesting. It is hard to say whether it is or not. I
am re-reading Charles Mackay's "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the
Madness of Crowds" right now, and the one thing that appears different
and why it might not be a mania is that, at least how he describes past
manias, is that in those there was virtually nobody saying that it was a
mania. Right now, there are alot of people who are making that
suggestion. But, you don't need a mania for a correction/bear market.
As for picking the top, u r probably right. I am making a forecast, but
outside of sticking my toe in a couple of times, I would not be trading
for a top. I hope that I will realize there is no top before it is too
late (and b4 we get to the levels where I currently think that we will
top). If I do pick it right (or anybody else does, for that matter) it
will probably be after picking 5 tops before it!
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> I don't believe in the "New Paradigm". However I firmly believe we're in a mania
> and that manias take markets into territory which can not be justified or
> forecast. Manias shoot bears down in flames and continue ever higher until they
> fall of their own accord. I have dozens of charts which suggest that this market
> has been overvalued for a couple of years, but the market doesn't care. I have
> log price charts which show parallel after parallel with the 1920's, but the
> market doesn't care. Fortunately, technical analysis gives us the tools with
> which to measure greed and fear so we may have a clue when the tide has turned.
> Jerry's talk was interesting and he may be right, but I don't think there's a
> guru or analyst around who can tell us in advance when the mania will end.
>
> Earl
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