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I don't believe in the "New Paradigm". However I firmly believe we're in a mania
and that manias take markets into territory which can not be justified or
forecast. Manias shoot bears down in flames and continue ever higher until they
fall of their own accord. I have dozens of charts which suggest that this market
has been overvalued for a couple of years, but the market doesn't care. I have
log price charts which show parallel after parallel with the 1920's, but the
market doesn't care. Fortunately, technical analysis gives us the tools with
which to measure greed and fear so we may have a clue when the tide has turned.
Jerry's talk was interesting and he may be right, but I don't think there's a
guru or analyst around who can tell us in advance when the mania will end.
Earl
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