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I had just completed work on my sugar chart, when I read the note on July Sugar,
which sent me back for another look as I've been looking for a bottom based on
both chart work and COT reports.
I'm showing failures in the last two major downward thrusts, however the last
minor thrust (cyan) is confirming the decline into new lows. The other item
which is troubling here is the new low in OBV. The heavy red line just above
price is the upper boundry of a long term linear regression channel and the
yellow line is an exention of the short term (magenta) linear regression line.
The fact that price is hugging above/below the red line and above the yellow
line suggests that it would like to breakout to upside. A typical breakout would
penetrate above the red line for a couple of days and then come back to retest
the red line. Given the downward slope of the channel, we could expect that a
successful retest could be just above or below the latest pivot low.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Stig Olausson <olausson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: traders@xxxxxxxxxxxx <traders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, June 06, 1998 11:07 AM
Subject: July sugar
>July sugar could be a low risk buy.
>
>Great time relationship (see gif)
>Similar convincing price relationships.(see gif)
>Seems like a minor 5 wave decline has been completed.
>Convincing volume and open interest rise at the bottom.
>To enter around Friday's close 8.07 and a stop just below the low the day
>before (which was a new low, but closed above the low and close 3 days
>earlier) at 7,95 we would would risk below $150.00
>
>Regards
>Stig
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SB_SUGR.gif"
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