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FWIW.
Sherman McClellan (McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation) was on
the local business channel in LA yesterday discussing market outlooks
using his family's indicators.
He said that he expects a strong summer US stock rally beginning soon,
followed by a sell off in September or October. This is based on
comparing the action of the Oscillator and Summation indexes to
similar periods in 1975. He also said that he expects small caps to
outperform large caps since the sell off has been greater in the small
caps.
He said that Gold is likely to hit its bottom soon, but that it will
go sideways after that. The McClellans use bonds as a leading
indicator of gold. They plot the bond index by 10 months ahead of
gold (i.e., July 1997 bonds are plotted below May 1998 gold). This
interpretation shows the bottom in gold soon with a small rally
followed by lots of sideways action.
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