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With the new era of more contribution in mind I would like to post an
ananlysis I did a week ago somewhere else. Price have since been jumping
up and down withing a (in my view) large trading range - entered short - on
the wrong foot - with too large a position - and my heart has been been
jumping up and down with price for a whole week.
I choose to post it because we saw the breakout yestersterday and FCK could
be tradable unless it gaps down today, and with the prospect of prices
continuing to fall for another one- two weeks this could be a rewarding
shortsale.
Price stopped right at the 38,2% retracement of the FX rise yesterday(not
shown). Let's see if it holds for a while this morning.
> Feeder Cattle have been mentioned as a short candidate since the
beginning
> of this week. With the risk of over analyzing, here is my contribution.
>
> We are at the upper trendline of a Sloping Trend channel.
> Mega resistanceat 77.08 - 77.19 All important tops since 7/17/97 are
> involved. (Highest close the last 2 weeks = 77.17)
> Time relalations, tops to tops, gives a time window April 8-17 for a top.
> DYnamic Trader software's Dynamic Time Projections (DTP) and Fib Time
Blitz (FTB), with 3%
> Swings, indicates Trend Change on April 14 / 15.
> Super Traders Book of Linear Cycles Indicate "Sell" Friday of Week 16
> (4/17)
> and weekly cyles are DOWN until Week 19 (May 8).
>
> Actual High so far April 7, Closing High April 13.
> Moon Full, Apogee and 0 Declination on April 10
> Mars enterd Taurus (The Bull) April 12 (T/C?)
> Sun enters Taurus (The Bull) April 20 (T/C? or trigger?)
> Mercury Stationary Direct April 20 (T/C? trigger?)
> (FCK started its last Up swing 2 Trading Days after Mercury went
> Retrograde...)
DTP and FTB are
>
Frank Taucher, in his Supertraders Alamanc - the Reference Manual states
that Cattle is a good commodity for cyclical analysis, so with the
breakdown yesterday and seasonal decline for 2 more weeks a shortsale looks
fairly safe.
Interestingly, he also states that if price is trying to break out of a
trading range and not done so 3 times in a row and tries a fourth time, the
odds for a breakout is VERY high. Take a close look at FCK and you will see
how the lower line was cut on the 4th try.He argues that we should always
be on the lookout for oporunities like this.
With this break out on the "wrong" side of a sloping Flagg the decline
could be dramatic. Look at the rise INTO the Flagg.
Please look at the bottom of the chart and note the FTB and DTP
projections. The 4/13 proj in DTP was one day away from the 3/13 high and
the 4/22 proj was in line with the small high the day before yesterday.
We don't have any projections (the higher the bars, the greater the odds
for a trend change on that date) until april 29, so I don't expect a bottom
until that date the earliest. The next projection is may 5th and 6th in DTP
right in line with Taucher's seasonal weekly study.(Done Fall 98...!).
Regards
Stig
> regards
> Stig
>
>
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