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The world is being connected by the Internet, computers, and other
technology like never before. It will dramatically change people's
business and personal lives, just as the automobile, electricity,
refrigerators, and the telephone did. But I've heard that fewer that
10% of the population lives like the average modern American, Western
European, or Asian does. But EVERYONE wants to. That is a lot of
production. Baring a war or world wide epidemic, I can easiliy belive
that the economy will continue to spiral upwards, with ocasional
corrections and mini recessions, for the forseeable future. There's a
lot of producing to do. . .it is only just beginning!
I have not heard about Harry Dent, but predicting an overall booming and
prosperous next 10 years does not seem unreasonable. I have only been
interested in the markets for a couple of years. I did not buy Dell,
Cisco, or Microsoft back then. Why? Because they had already doubled
or tripled in the previous couple of years(over valued, of course), and
I was not going to "jump in at the top". Everyone knows though, that
they have doubled or tripled again. As technology advances, the newer
things are so much better than the old (cars, refrigerators, planes,
micro controllers, computers) that these companies will continue to
grow, or be supplanted by those more aggressive.
Of course, if politicians screw up the currencies, all bets are off.
Tim Proeber
Elliott, Gann, and Merlin, ain't seen nothing.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Kovacs, Ross R [SMTP:KOVACSRR@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, April 16, 1998 10:19 AM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: FW: GEN:Harry Dent update
>
> I think I'm the guilty party that started this Harry Dent thread.
> Please don't misunderstand my beliefs; I don't believe Harry Dent,
> Joe Granville or any other long range forecast. The only thing you
> can say with certainty is that in the long run, we're all dead and can
>
> finally stop paying taxes (after estate taxes are done).
>
> Nonetheless, IMHO, Harry Dent has a rational explanation for the
> existing bull market to continue for many years. I find this
> rationale slightly more convincing than Elliot Waves and astrology
> (please, no offense intended if you believe in these things).
>
> And Joe Granville is still around. He is currently the THIRD highest
> rated market timer as tracked by Timer Digest! He is currently still
> bullish.
>
> ----------
> From: R.Griess[SMTP:greaser@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 1998 6:57 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: GEN:Harry Dent update
>
>
> >Dent was on CNBC this afternoon. He has revised his upside projection
>
> on the
> >Dow from 18,000-20,000 to 35,000 by 2008, a compounded 15% return. He
>
> is
> >really going out on a limb, though in his defense, he's been very
> right so
> >far.
>
> Yup, you could say the same thing about every guru.... They're
> always
> right until they're not. Make an outrageous statement and laugh all
> the
> way to the bank with the profits from the book sale!! Do you really
> believe we can continue to grow the market at 15% until 2008?? I say
> again
> (like I did when I posted a response to your original post on Dent's
> folly), do you own homework and don't rely on the gurus!!
>
>
> >The comments made last week by someone on this list (sorry I forgot
> your
> name)
> >concerning the bull market petering out by 2000-2003 based on
> demographic
> >studies are well taken. It certainly doesn't seem possible that the
> market
> >will rally to 35,000 by 2008-2010, everyone will sell out and then
> the market
> >will fall precipitiously. Since Dent's work is becoming more
> mainstream now
> >that he has been right (and he has a new book out, the Roaring
> 2000's) it
> >seems likely that an earlier end to the bull market will occur. Or
> maybe it
> >goes to 50,000 by 2015. Who knows?
> >
>
> I grew up when Joltin' Joe Granville used to make these types of
> statements. Whatever happened to him anyway?? Manias always end the
> same
> way. The market stops going up and starts going down for no apparent
> reason. The reason always comes months or years later. How many RT's
>
> are
> more worried about not making 15% a year than they are about losing
> money??
> When the prevailing attitude is loss of opportunity rather than risk
> of
> loss, we will be close to the end. Next week, next month, next year,
> next
> decade...... beats me!!
>
> Ron
>
>
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