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I think I'm the guilty party that started this Harry Dent thread.
Please don't misunderstand my beliefs; I don't believe Harry Dent,
Joe Granville or any other long range forecast. The only thing you
can say with certainty is that in the long run, we're all dead and can
finally stop paying taxes (after estate taxes are done).
Nonetheless, IMHO, Harry Dent has a rational explanation for the
existing bull market to continue for many years. I find this
rationale slightly more convincing than Elliot Waves and astrology
(please, no offense intended if you believe in these things).
And Joe Granville is still around. He is currently the THIRD highest
rated market timer as tracked by Timer Digest! He is currently still
bullish.
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From: R.Griess[SMTP:greaser@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 1998 6:57 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: GEN:Harry Dent update
>Dent was on CNBC this afternoon. He has revised his upside projection
on the
>Dow from 18,000-20,000 to 35,000 by 2008, a compounded 15% return. He
is
>really going out on a limb, though in his defense, he's been very
right so
>far.
Yup, you could say the same thing about every guru.... They're
always
right until they're not. Make an outrageous statement and laugh all
the
way to the bank with the profits from the book sale!! Do you really
believe we can continue to grow the market at 15% until 2008?? I say
again
(like I did when I posted a response to your original post on Dent's
folly), do you own homework and don't rely on the gurus!!
>The comments made last week by someone on this list (sorry I forgot
your
name)
>concerning the bull market petering out by 2000-2003 based on
demographic
>studies are well taken. It certainly doesn't seem possible that the
market
>will rally to 35,000 by 2008-2010, everyone will sell out and then
the market
>will fall precipitiously. Since Dent's work is becoming more
mainstream now
>that he has been right (and he has a new book out, the Roaring
2000's) it
>seems likely that an earlier end to the bull market will occur. Or
maybe it
>goes to 50,000 by 2015. Who knows?
>
I grew up when Joltin' Joe Granville used to make these types of
statements. Whatever happened to him anyway?? Manias always end the
same
way. The market stops going up and starts going down for no apparent
reason. The reason always comes months or years later. How many RT's
are
more worried about not making 15% a year than they are about losing
money??
When the prevailing attitude is loss of opportunity rather than risk
of
loss, we will be close to the end. Next week, next month, next year,
next
decade...... beats me!!
Ron
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