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This thread is quite refreshing. For whatever psychological reason, all I
can remember seeing in the past 3 years are forecasts of doom and gloom.
Finally, some forecasts of a bull market. Is there some reason that more
knowledgeable people have a bearish tendency? Maybe too much knowledge is
a bad thing. I know that the more I seem to find out about the markets,
the more I think they should be lower. It's a hard tendency to fight.
When I trade, I have to put what I "think" in the background. Really
annoying (and tough).
More to the point, I don't see why people won't just continue this
selective market and bid up the blue chips more. Blue chips are perceived
as less risky. Why take a chance, now that the "experts" say that P/E
doesn't matter. My 401K's small cap value fund is not up nearly as much
as the SP.
I think this market is baby boomer driven (I'm one). It reminds me of the
California real estate market in 1970-1979. I couldn't believe it - they
wanted $50,000 for a two bedroom condo on the water in Malibu - who would
ever pay that much? I think we'll see the market go higher than anyone
can imagine right now - just like Japan or Hong Kong did. Just be
prepared to get out of the way.
Larry Lewis
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From: Peter Namtvedt (reply to:
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx)[SMTP:petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (MIME)
(actually from: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx)]
Sent: Monday, April 06, 1998 7:52 PM
To: realtraders
Subject: Re: Marty Schwartz:"Pit Bull"
Marty, Tim, Lynn and all:
It was Ralph who did forecast DJIA of 10,000 and then rescinded it,
only to re-instate his original forecast. Who can believe him?
Now we have had, according to Barron's, a story arguing that the market
average P/E twice what we have now could be fairly valude. I am looking
for the source: 2 scholars were featured in a recent article i the
*Wall Street Journal* and who else can we trust?
Another source supported a 49.9% increase in the DOW.
All right (let's call this the "most outrageous forecast forum."\\
I then have to say DJIA will touch 11,200 in the year 1998.
This is against the background of some who think it is worth less
than 6000 and others who forecast 15,000 in two years.
Cookie jars are beginning to be broken. The Louis Rukeyser panel voted
+6 for the next quarter to be UP 10%. They get the credit for my
being totally out of the market in October 1987 (they voted a minus 5
in May 1987). But even if they are right, I am worried about the level
of personal use of credit. Are we seeing great amounts of mony being
invested that should be used to pay down credit cards? Where else can
we look for a sign that the great crowd of lemmings are turning toward
the cliff?
I don't see it still. Last month another $24 billion went into stock
mutual funds. Next we will see that that mony will switch from buying
blue chips to whatever they can find.
PeteNa
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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