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Lawrence Lewis wrote:
>
> This thread is quite refreshing. For whatever psychological reason, all I
> can remember seeing in the past 3 years are forecasts of doom and gloom.
> Finally, some forecasts of a bull market. Is there some reason that more
> knowledgeable people have a bearish tendency? Maybe too much knowledge is
> a bad thing. I know that the more I seem to find out about the markets,
> the more I think they should be lower. It's a hard tendency to fight.
> When I trade, I have to put what I "think" in the background. Really
> annoying (and tough).
>
> More to the point, I don't see why people won't just continue this
> selective market and bid up the blue chips more. Blue chips are perceived
> as less risky. Why take a chance, now that the "experts" say that P/E
> doesn't matter. My 401K's small cap value fund is not up nearly as much
> as the SP.
>
> I think this market is baby boomer driven (I'm one). It reminds me of the
> California real estate market in 1970-1979. I couldn't believe it - they
> wanted $50,000 for a two bedroom condo on the water in Malibu - who would
> ever pay that much? I think we'll see the market go higher than anyone
> can imagine right now - just like Japan or Hong Kong did. Just be
> prepared to get out of the way.
>
> Larry Lewis
>
I think the rational argument for the bear case is always easier to make
than the argument for the bull continuing, even when it is wrong...
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