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Brent, you wrote:
Indeed your own post showed that you do not respond to price
alone but use indicators such as Fibonacci retracements and volume.
Herein lies our problem, I suggest! I don't think of either of those as
indicators per se.
For me, an indicator is one of the 122 that I have stored in SC in the
Analysis Techniques file - along with the ShowMe, PaintBar and System
subsections. I am sure all TS and SC users know what I am talking about.
Naturally, this file does not contain the Fibonacci retracement tool, which,
on my machine is a separate and essential icon - in use immediately when the
market starts to come off.
Anyway, I can't tell you what the original figure was in the Analysis
Techniques file, but I have added I can't remember how many .ela files (from
this very forum, mainly!) and, as I have said the total I have is 122. Now
I admit that includes Tick Volume, which I do have up as a reminder of the
'noise' that is going on in the pit - but let's be honest, the ticking of
the tick bars is exactly the same and watching the 1' chart fill its bars,
tells me pretty much the same information. But on the 5' chart it is
useful to see the comparative levels of tick volume, over time.
Now I know people use volume to predict direction. Some say that "a high
volume up bar primes the market bearish" and, that person can show you
legions of examples - but I'll tell you something, when it happens, the
market is always a million bars from where I am. Just like RSI when it is
showing me the market is overbought: It cuts the line and away we go! Do
we hell. If I am relying on it with my money, you can bet your life it is
going to cut back, then reverse again, then go sideways, then dip down, then
cut back, then, O then, it decides it really is going to follow the market
down and tell you how clever it has been to show you the way. Well, as I
have said before, that may work with position trading and a bank account to
accomodate the drawdown - or with options and time ticking away.
Me, I trade the leading edge. Price, and where it is going, is what counts.
That little blip at the end of the bar moving up and down, then suddenly
appearing to concentrate and marching defiantly up... that's the little
fellow that counts. And honestly, (after scouring the earth for an
indicator to show me the way...) the only help I can expect in this
particular battle field is a map of sup/res and a retracement tool in my
kitbag. Look at the map, draw the weapon and keenly observe the action.
After a bit you find the map is not bad, not bad at all - and you become
quite good at reading it. Mind you, you've got to take a lot of other
factors into account - time and time of day, for example - etc..
You, on the other hand, play a completely different game. I understand
that. But when we come to words, it is important that we are talking about
the same thing. I am sure we agree on that, even if America and England
is, as the Great Man said, "allies separated by a common language."
Whatever, let me end by saying that I have little faith in the type of
indicators I am talking about - and for the reasons which you must be able
to see. Period.
But, let's hear about the ones you use. Which ones point the way for you?
Perhaps it is the 123rd one in the locker (good Fib numbers, there!) that
will make all the difference...
Best of luck, Brent. I feel for you dreadfully over what we call ME in
England. Have you tried sleeping on a magnetic mattress? There is a nippy
little company in the States call Nikkon, who sell them and they are meant
to be very good for ME suffers. I know a number of people who have
benefitted from magnotherapy - including me and my ankylosing spondulitis!
Regards
Bill
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