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Just a quick note on CBOE interest rate option. THE DPM's
screen quotes are for 100 up markets on RAEs. 100
contracts each side of the quote. Unlike the usual 10 up
for most other CBOE contracts.
RL2946 wrote:
> RealTraders,
>
> An update on the 3/29/98 energy point for
> the TYX. Instead of the 50% retracement holding,
> a rise ensued to a monday high just at the .682
> Fibonacci retracement. NP still indicates 3/29 as
> the energy point, though if a cit was a day early.
> Tuesday opened at the high and engulfed the
> previous day, closing near it's lows.
>
> The two day pattern meets Robert Miner's
> description of a Snap-Back Reversal Day (SBRD)
> in his book, "Dynamic Trading".
> The SBRD is a "two day reversal signal", in which
> "Day One: the market makes a new high with an
> open in the lower 1/3 of the daily range and the
> high in the top 1/3 of the daily range..."
> "Day Two (snap-back day): The open is in the
> top 1/3 of the daily range and the close in the
> bottom third of the daily range...."
>
> For reference, here are the ranges for the first
> two days this week:
> Mon. O 59.51 H 59.89 L 59.44 C 59.75
> Tue. O 59.78 H 59.78 L 59.32 C 59.37
>
> In his book, Mr. Miner identifies this set-up
> as a trend reversal signal, which he cautions are
> "... only valid as trend reversal signals when the
> technical analysis indicates the market is in a
> position for a trend reversal."
> It looks like a change in trend, NP being off one
> day. A trade above Monday's high will disprove
> this tentative conclusion.
>
> p.s. NP gives an Automode signal for the
> nasdaq 100 index for 4/11/98.
>
> Best wishes to all,
>
> Rory Lewellen RL2946@xxxxxxx
>
> >
> > About the bonds, Nature's Pulse Automode has
> >an energy point (change in trend or acceleration)
> >forecast for Sunday, Mar. 29, '98, for the
> >CBOE Treasury Yield (TYX); the long term
> >interest rate.
> > Bolstering a preliminary opinion that this will
> >be a change in trend:
> >
> > a. The tyx is at a 50% retracement of the
> > move down from 3/6/98 to 3/17/98,
> > (closed friday just under it).
> > b. An ABC pattern presents in the move
> > up from 3/17/98, and may be completing.
> > ABC patterns usually indicate a
> > counter-trend swing, the trend consonant
> > swings should be 1-2-3-4-5 affairs.
> >
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