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RealTraders,
An update on the 3/29/98 energy point for
the TYX. Instead of the 50% retracement holding,
a rise ensued to a monday high just at the .682
Fibonacci retracement. NP still indicates 3/29 as
the energy point, though if a cit was a day early.
Tuesday opened at the high and engulfed the
previous day, closing near it's lows.
The two day pattern meets Robert Miner's
description of a Snap-Back Reversal Day (SBRD)
in his book, "Dynamic Trading".
The SBRD is a "two day reversal signal", in which
"Day One: the market makes a new high with an
open in the lower 1/3 of the daily range and the
high in the top 1/3 of the daily range..."
"Day Two (snap-back day): The open is in the
top 1/3 of the daily range and the close in the
bottom third of the daily range...."
For reference, here are the ranges for the first
two days this week:
Mon. O 59.51 H 59.89 L 59.44 C 59.75
Tue. O 59.78 H 59.78 L 59.32 C 59.37
In his book, Mr. Miner identifies this set-up
as a trend reversal signal, which he cautions are
"... only valid as trend reversal signals when the
technical analysis indicates the market is in a
position for a trend reversal."
It looks like a change in trend, NP being off one
day. A trade above Monday's high will disprove
this tentative conclusion.
p.s. NP gives an Automode signal for the
nasdaq 100 index for 4/11/98.
Best wishes to all,
Rory Lewellen RL2946@xxxxxxx
>
> About the bonds, Nature's Pulse Automode has
>an energy point (change in trend or acceleration)
>forecast for Sunday, Mar. 29, '98, for the
>CBOE Treasury Yield (TYX); the long term
>interest rate.
> Bolstering a preliminary opinion that this will
>be a change in trend:
>
> a. The tyx is at a 50% retracement of the
> move down from 3/6/98 to 3/17/98,
> (closed friday just under it).
> b. An ABC pattern presents in the move
> up from 3/17/98, and may be completing.
> ABC patterns usually indicate a
> counter-trend swing, the trend consonant
> swings should be 1-2-3-4-5 affairs.
>
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