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Message-ID: <350251E6.288A666D@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 08 Mar 1998 00:08:07 -0800
From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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To: tkelley@xxxxxxx
Subject: Re: GEN: Worthless Pursuit
References: <199803070003.QAA03780@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> <35018326.406C@xxxxxxx>
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Troy Kelley wrote:
> I am about to start trading on a system I have worked hard on, but I am
> beginning to wonder whether this is a worthless pursuit.
>
> Reasons: Larry Williams doesn't trade, he sells his stuff. Neiderhoffer
> went bust. Tom DeMark doesn't trade. Schwager doesn't trade. Linda
> Rasche doesn't trade any more. Richard Dennis had a 60 percent drawdown
> last I heard. I am not sure if Gann really ever made any money.
NW: Yes, Gann made money. Perhaps not as much as the legend would imply, but
nonetheless he was
very successful.
> These
> are the biggest players in this world, and they don't make a living from
> purely trading.
NW: You didn't mention Warren Buffett, George Soros, or Marc Rich. All
three of these made billions of dollars from trading.
> I am wondering if all these people just had a lucky
> streak and now all they can do is sell their "knowledge".
>
> When I started this, I assumed that if I could predict the direction of
> the market I would make money. But now I realize that prediction is easy
> compared to actually making money from the prediction.
NW: No one can successful "predict" the markets" However, a few can do a
credible job of forecasting the markets, strategizing a trading plan, and
managing the resulting risk.
> I think this is
> also what Larry, Linda, Tom ect..all these other people realize.
> Prediction is easy, making money from the prediction is hard. And once
> you start making money, making money for extendend periods of time is
> almost impossible.
>
> I think the real problem is not figuring out the randomness of the
> market,
NW: The markets are not random.
> but dealing with all the competition of the market players. We
> are all taking money from each other. We are all smart people and we
> don't like loosing money. This makes for an incredibly competitive
> environment. It also means that no one, no one, will stay on top for
> very long.
NW: You don't have to be #1 to make a nice living. To be successful in
trading, you need only to be in
the top five percent. This is far better than most professions such as
sports or the arts where you must
be in the top 1/10th of 1% just to make a living.
> Just some thoughts. I welcome any replies.
NW: Me too.
Regards,
Norman
>
>
> Troy
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