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I am about to start trading on a system I have worked hard on, but I am
beginning to wonder whether this is a worthless pursuit.
Reasons: Larry Williams doesn't trade, he sells his stuff. Neiderhoffer
went bust. Tom DeMark doesn't trade. Schwager doesn't trade. Linda
Rasche doesn't trade any more. Richard Dennis had a 60 percent drawdown
last I heard. I am not sure if Gann really ever made any money. These
are the biggest players in this world, and they don't make a living from
purely trading. I am wondering if all these people just had a lucky
streak and now all they can do is sell their "knowledge".
When I started this, I assumed that if I could predict the direction of
the market I would make money. But now I realize that prediction is easy
compared to actually making money from the prediction. I think this is
also what Larry, Linda, Tom ect..all these other people realize.
Prediction is easy, making money from the prediction is hard. And once
you start making money, making money for extendend periods of time is
almost impossible.
I think the real problem is not figuring out the randomness of the
market, but dealing with all the competition of the market players. We
are all taking money from each other. We are all smart people and we
don't like loosing money. This makes for an incredibly competitive
environment. It also means that no one, no one, will stay on top for
very long.
Just some thoughts. I welcome any replies.
Troy
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