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As I see it
The bear argument for T Bonds
If the down move in yield from Mar 97 to 12 Jan 98 IS a completed 5 wave
formation, then:
1 We had a KWR - not dramatic but intact
2 We seem to be in the early stages of a wave 3 (shown in red)
3 5.99% seems excellent support
4 Having had yields under 6.00% for two months, a change of sentiment is
not out of order
The bull argument for T Bonds
If the down move in yield from Mar 97 to 12 Jan 98 IS NOT a completed 5
wave formation, then:
1 We have spent two months in an ABC correction
2 Response to Fridays jobs data is a likely suspect for termination of a C
wave
In summary
1 Perhaps Fridays price action was simply that of "sell the rumour, buy the
fact"
2 I have more respect for S&R and KRW as indicators of market sentiment
than
my ability to count waves
Hence, I'm a bear on T Bonds while the yield remains above 5.99%, and won't
be a bull until the yield closes below 5.77%.
Positive criticism welcome!
Graham Critchley
Box 330
South Melbourne VIC 3205
AUSTRALIA
Phone 0416 171 006
Intl Ph 61 416 171 006
E-Mail gcc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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