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On Jan 31, 5:36pm, Clyde Lee wrote:
> Subject: GEN - Statistics on SwingMachine Swings
>
> Traders,
>
> I created a chart that has the NUMBER of calendar
> days in a swing versus OEX POINTS.
>
> The data is sorted by days and points.
>
> Some very interesting aspects were found. There
> are nearly the same number of swings with high to
> low values over 10 OEX points in each day
> category.
>
> The largest swings occur in ONE DAY swings.
Interesting result. You'd think that if the market made newer
highs for 10 days in a row, that the end result would be a larger
total value than if the market reversed one day later.
the only improvement that I'd recommend is to look at percentage
change moves instead of total point moves to correct for early
times when OEX less than half of the value it is today.
it might also be interesting to separate up moves from down moves
just to see if the pattern is approximately the same.
>
> This picture may help in evaluating when and how
> to exit trades entered on SM swings.
like: if OEX makes a big 1-day move in your favor, just after
you've opened the trade the day before -- it is generally better to
take profits?
another result: it looks like that OEX generally reverses (swings)
1 to 3 days later, in 75% of the sample. So, if you're contratrding
(swing trading) and OEX hasn't moved in your favor within 3 days,
your odds of it happening after that aare 1 out of 4 or lower.
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| Gary Funck, Intrepid Technology, gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx, (650) 964-8135
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