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Gwenn Ael Gautier wrote:
I read this as either distribution since October, or congestion along
the way. If we break 1000 on the SP, and the floor guys will certainly
love to do this, and then hold it for three minutes, floor saying is
that chances are 1000 will hold for 3 hours, and then three days. I'd
bet for 3 weeks minimum up, next, this move is too complex to be a
reversal. BUT THAT IS ONLY AN OPINION.
>
> Gwenn
Gwenn,
What part of the price action are you refering to as being too complex
for a reversal??? In EW terms? Just Experience?
Anything can happen, what I observe in intraday cumulative volume are
lower highs. and each successive rally's cumulative volume SLOPE when
eyeballed, is less and less robust.
The trend line JB is refering to is around 987.50 SPX. The trend on a
closing basis is about 971-972... The 2 Standard Deviation Bolinger Band
as of the close is 987.77. Also 36 points 720 ticks added to the 950.86
is 986.86. 1440 ticks from the 912 low is 984.XX To me that looks like
a tag your it. On an intraday basis the cumulative Advance-Decline is
just about horizontal... I put more value in cumulative volume than the
cumulative A/D in terms of predictive value.
My low risk sell with a tight stop would be after momentum starts do
weaken after hitting some of these targets.
I observe that if SPX/? sells off a bit. it can rally cumulativley for
about 3 or 4 more days until it would take a rest, So rallying to 1000
is a pretty real possibility.
So my two ticks are a run up to 986 or so. and decline then rally..
Don
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