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Comparing the Swing Machine projected low for Monday with the Classical
Pivots and the Volatility adjusted Pivots we have a CP low at S2A of
7571.54 and a VP S3 low of 7594.84. That is if infact the market has a
strong down day. The Projection Oscillator is pointing down going into
Monday, but it is located at the 50% line on Friday where retracement
reversals tend to occur.
Using the Odds Implied Volatility cone we find that the Swing Machine low
for Monday 01/26 of 74XX has a 5.5% chance of being reached. Therefore I
would bet on the Monday low being somewhere between Friday's low and the
Monday Swing Machine low, more likely the CP or VP.
Also using the Odds Implied volatility cone we find that the Thursday Swing
Machine high of 7900 has a 38% chance of being reached. Whereas the Friday
8050 has an 18% chance of being reached. This is of course using the data
from 01/23/98 and each day of the week will give new probabilities.
BobR
http://www.oextrader.com
At 10:05 PM 1/24/98 -0600, Clyde Lee wrote:
>Traders,
>
>This week we will look at a daily of the DJIA.
>
>I have spent a lot of time going back on this and
>the other indices and looking at how many
>projections are needed to do the best job at
>figuring out what really is going to happen.
>
>My conclusion -- 2 projections are best -- if
>prices go past one then you can almost be sure
>they will reach (and most of the time exceed)
>the second.
>
>The attached points to yesterday (Friday) as a
>probable TP and if so then we will expect to
>see prices near 8050.
>
>However, if TP does not occur until Monday
>then recovery will probably stop around 7900.
>
>Either way it looks like an up next few days
>with the possible exception of Monday.
>
>Clyde
>
>
>--
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMacine)
>SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
>7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
>Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
>
>Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\djda0123.gif"
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\djiP0126.gif"
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