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I have to thank Clyde for his private message on this...and the people
responsible for the public messages as well...I also have to smile a bit
as I thought we were speaking of another source for information on the
lunar aspects of trading, but it happens that it may have been myself
that brought Camp up in the first place.
Sorry. I feel as if I just went in a big circle.
--PJS
Gitanshu Buch wrote:
>
> If this is what you were looking for... with Clyde Lee's comments
> attached from a related post.
>
> You may have heard of the old commodity trading saying, "buy the new
> moon and sell the full". It may be good advise for
> some commodities like beans and greens and corn bread, but for trading
>
> S&P's or OEX options this year, it hasn't been
> worth a flip. Why? Because so far this year any trading day that also
> happened to be the full moon, has closed Positive 83%
> of the time. So much for old commodity trading sayings, huh? Well, not
>
> really. Like most things in the markets there is another
> side of the story. So we asked our computers to give us some
> additional
> information on trading during a full moon. Here are
> the results.
>
> So far this year we have had 10 full moons. Only two fell on a weekend
>
> so we used the following Monday as the "full moon
> day". We asked the computers to look for any patterns on the 3 trading
>
> days before a full moon day, and (since everyone
> wants to buy an option, hold it for a week, and hit a home run) on the
> 5
> trading days after a full moon day. What we found is
> very interesting.
>
> As you learned above, full moon days close up 83% of the time. AND
> that
> is the worst day to be short, as the average drop
> on a full moon day is only 20.10 points on the Dow. BUT, shorting
> before
> the full moon does much better. The average
> cumulative drop during the three days BEFORE a full moon trading day
> is
> 90.40 points. That's the equivalent of over 10
> points on the OEX. AND, the best day of the three to be short, or in
> puts, is the day BEFORE the full moon, which averages
> dropping 35.20 points.
>
> BUT, if you really want to go for a big lick in puts, study this. The
> average cumulative drop in the week (5 trading days) after
> a full moon is 168.80 points. That's 19 points on the OEX and not bad
> for a weeks work. The best day to be short is the
> THIRD day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping
> 72.50
> points. The second best day to be short is the
> FIRST day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping
> 35.60
> points.
>
> Now before you start thinking that this full moon stuff is a bunch of
> bull, tell us how much and on what day was the biggest
> one day drop in 1996 (so far). We'll even give you a hint. Elaine
> Garzarelli had nothing to do with it. While your at it, tell us
> how much and on what day was the biggest one, and two day drops in
> 1995.
>
> Give up? The biggest one day drop in 1996 was -216 points on March 8.
>
> It was the THIRD day after the full moon. The
> biggest one day drop in 1995 was -133 points on July 19. It was the
> fifth day after the full moon. The biggest two day drop
> was that day and the day before, the fourth day after the full moon
> when
> the Dow dropped -58 for a total two day drop of
> -191 points.
>
> Of the 15 biggest one day drops in 1996 so far, 11 of them were within
>
> the time frames examined by our computers during
> the full moon each month. Ten of them fell in the "week" after the
> full
> moon. If we ignore the Garzarelli selloff days that means
> that only 2 of the biggest drops this year have NOT been during a full
>
> moon. Making 10 out of 13 of the biggest drops hitting
> after the full moon. All other things equal, we know of no better time
>
> to be holding puts.
>
> Only once in the past year has holding puts right after a full moon
> not
> worked very well. That full moon was also a "Blue
> Moon", proving once again that that old saying of "once in a Blue
> Moon"
> really is something unusual.
>
>
> H. L.Camp
>
> October 1, 1996
>
>
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