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Thanks, John. I know I, for one, have missed your analysis. As for those
who may be new to the list, THIS is a guy to whom you may want to pay close
attention! As opposed to the obsession of some who feel compelled to attach
a gif with EVERY post sent, whom I quickly learned to ignore, when John
attaches a gif, I open it. It appears to me John may actually trade!!
Regards,
Tom Alexander
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> From: G.John Boggio <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: MKT - Symmetry Short Term S&P
> Date: Wednesday, December 10, 1997 1:56 PM
>
> Realtraders,
>
> It has been a little while since my last analysis so I thought I would
> update you quickly on my short-term interpretations of the S&P.
Currently
> it is 12:35pm est on 12/10/97 and the SP Z7 is down 1250 to 96640 with a
> low of 96390. I have attached a 15 minute chart depicting recent
activity.
>
> First, I would just like to say, as of my last commentary to the group,
I
> stated my LONG-TERM view of the market suggested that we have now entered
a
> downward bias and any bounces should be viewed as SELLING opportunities
for
> the intermediate and long-term investor. While the short-term trader may
> be able to capitalize on some quick intraday or daily trading. These
> conclusions were based on my symmetrical analysis work that I have so
often
> mentioned on this forum and was dictated by the 13+% decline in the S&P
> during the October decline which ended on the 28th. Note, my projections
> for a continued decline suggest a 20.5% from the highest high, +/-4.1%.
>
> Anyhow, I must say that I was/am surprised by the strength of this
rally,
> since that October low. A rally in which we just recently retested the
> all-time highs in several markets - S&P and TRANSPORTS, but fell a little
> short in others - NASDAQ and DJIA, to name a few. With that said, I must
> say that I am now a little unsure of the future direction of the general
> market over the next few weeks to months but on a very short term basis,
> today's low has found symmetrical support and a short term buy signal has
> been issued. Obviously, this is only for the bravest of hearts but
> nevertheless it has been issued (more on that analysis in a minute).
>
> Getting back to my indecision of the longer-term view of the market,
here
> are some pro (bulls) and cons (bears): Pro - Did the recent October
> pullback of 13% just given another "buy the dips" opportunity which we
> have seen proves so successful for the last few years? Con - Is a major
> double top forming? Pro or Con - Which way is the bond market going...
> Have we hit a major resistance level at the 6% yield level and have we
> formed a major Triple top in bond prices? Or, will we continue to see a
> "flight to quality" from many Asian investor as well as our own, which
> would propel us through the 6% level? Con - The technology sector which
> has primarily lead this bull market for the last few years is finding it
> very difficult to advance at this present time. Will the overall market
be
> able to rally which the techs declining? Pro - Seasonally, we are
entering
> a relatively strong period...Santa Claus rally and the January Effect.
Con
> - The weekly and monthly indicators and oscillators are either extremely
> overbought and BEGINNING TO ROLLOVER or they have turned back up (weekly)
> but are showing potentially major divergences.
> So, as you can see, I have just named a few of my concerns with respect
> to what I am seeing at this time. Thus I have become a little confused
as
> to the overall market direction for the intermediate and long-term
> investor/position taker. Therefore, I am playing it safe. I have a
rather
> large cash position at this time but will be looking at the next few days
> to help determine what I should do, if anything. Further, I do have a
> position in some of the tech stocks and I too am taking a beating (INTC,
> AMAT, CSCO, CA, PSFT to name a few) but based on my potential short-term
> buy signal, I am not going to sell....just yet.
>
> Now, to get back to the short-term analysis. Quickly (I think I have
said
> that before), we HAVE a symmetrical match in the market which suggests a
> short-term bottom. Take a look at the dark red lines on the chart. The
> first line (left side of chart) represents Wave 1-2 and measures 2330
basis
> points. I then measured what is now Wave 3-4, where Wave 3 was the 98880
> high on 12/5/97. With today's low of 96390, we get a decline, from that
> high, of 2490 and is almost an exact symmetrical match based on this wave
> structure. Failure of this structure will occur if the market declines
> 2800 bpts from the Wave 3 high or a level of 96080 on the SPZ7. Thus,
this
> would be where you would place your stops.
>
> Finally, you will also see a white line on the chart, that line is
> POTENTILLY representing a LARGER wave structure which we saw between the
> November 5th to the 13th time frame. That decline measured 5170 bpoints
> and has a leeway of 1035 points. As you can see, an exact match will
occur
> near the 93900 area and also has some Classical and Fibonacci supports
> zones associated with that area which adds to its confluence.
>
> Hope this helps,
> John Boggio
> PS Since I started this post, nearly an hour has past and so far, the
SPZ7
> is still trading just off its lows at the 96780 level or down 1110
bpoints.
> PPS Due to technical difficulties, my website is down and I will not be
> able to post this message to that location but you will still be able to
> view my past commentaries or explanations of Symmetry Wave Theory,
> excluding my last commentary almost a month ago. Sorry.
>
> For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go
to:
>
> Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
> Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
>
> Thank you.
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