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Realtraders,
It has been a little while since my last analysis so I thought I would
update you quickly on my short-term interpretations of the S&P. Currently
it is 12:35pm est on 12/10/97 and the SP Z7 is down 1250 to 96640 with a
low of 96390. I have attached a 15 minute chart depicting recent activity.
First, I would just like to say, as of my last commentary to the group, I
stated my LONG-TERM view of the market suggested that we have now entered a
downward bias and any bounces should be viewed as SELLING opportunities for
the intermediate and long-term investor. While the short-term trader may
be able to capitalize on some quick intraday or daily trading. These
conclusions were based on my symmetrical analysis work that I have so often
mentioned on this forum and was dictated by the 13+% decline in the S&P
during the October decline which ended on the 28th. Note, my projections
for a continued decline suggest a 20.5% from the highest high, +/-4.1%.
Anyhow, I must say that I was/am surprised by the strength of this rally,
since that October low. A rally in which we just recently retested the
all-time highs in several markets - S&P and TRANSPORTS, but fell a little
short in others - NASDAQ and DJIA, to name a few. With that said, I must
say that I am now a little unsure of the future direction of the general
market over the next few weeks to months but on a very short term basis,
today's low has found symmetrical support and a short term buy signal has
been issued. Obviously, this is only for the bravest of hearts but
nevertheless it has been issued (more on that analysis in a minute).
Getting back to my indecision of the longer-term view of the market, here
are some pro (bulls) and cons (bears): Pro - Did the recent October
pullback of 13% just given another "buy the dips" opportunity which we
have seen proves so successful for the last few years? Con - Is a major
double top forming? Pro or Con - Which way is the bond market going...
Have we hit a major resistance level at the 6% yield level and have we
formed a major Triple top in bond prices? Or, will we continue to see a
"flight to quality" from many Asian investor as well as our own, which
would propel us through the 6% level? Con - The technology sector which
has primarily lead this bull market for the last few years is finding it
very difficult to advance at this present time. Will the overall market be
able to rally which the techs declining? Pro - Seasonally, we are entering
a relatively strong period...Santa Claus rally and the January Effect. Con
- The weekly and monthly indicators and oscillators are either extremely
overbought and BEGINNING TO ROLLOVER or they have turned back up (weekly)
but are showing potentially major divergences.
So, as you can see, I have just named a few of my concerns with respect
to what I am seeing at this time. Thus I have become a little confused as
to the overall market direction for the intermediate and long-term
investor/position taker. Therefore, I am playing it safe. I have a rather
large cash position at this time but will be looking at the next few days
to help determine what I should do, if anything. Further, I do have a
position in some of the tech stocks and I too am taking a beating (INTC,
AMAT, CSCO, CA, PSFT to name a few) but based on my potential short-term
buy signal, I am not going to sell....just yet.
Now, to get back to the short-term analysis. Quickly (I think I have said
that before), we HAVE a symmetrical match in the market which suggests a
short-term bottom. Take a look at the dark red lines on the chart. The
first line (left side of chart) represents Wave 1-2 and measures 2330 basis
points. I then measured what is now Wave 3-4, where Wave 3 was the 98880
high on 12/5/97. With today's low of 96390, we get a decline, from that
high, of 2490 and is almost an exact symmetrical match based on this wave
structure. Failure of this structure will occur if the market declines
2800 bpts from the Wave 3 high or a level of 96080 on the SPZ7. Thus, this
would be where you would place your stops.
Finally, you will also see a white line on the chart, that line is
POTENTILLY representing a LARGER wave structure which we saw between the
November 5th to the 13th time frame. That decline measured 5170 bpoints
and has a leeway of 1035 points. As you can see, an exact match will occur
near the 93900 area and also has some Classical and Fibonacci supports
zones associated with that area which adds to its confluence.
Hope this helps,
John Boggio
PS Since I started this post, nearly an hour has past and so far, the SPZ7
is still trading just off its lows at the 96780 level or down 1110 bpoints.
PPS Due to technical difficulties, my website is down and I will not be
able to post this message to that location but you will still be able to
view my past commentaries or explanations of Symmetry Wave Theory,
excluding my last commentary almost a month ago. Sorry.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\sysp1210.gif"
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.From ???@??? Wed Dec 10 11:39:07 1997
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Date: Wed, 10 Dec 1997 13:27:58 -0600
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From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: YHOO
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Status:
If you are short and it goes against in the short run you can't go long
in the same account.
Harley
Eric wrote:
> Harley Meyer wrote:
> >
> > Thought I would give an update.
> > Recap: Short 50 shares @ 52 in 1 account
> > Long 50 shares @ 54 1/16 in another account
> > Problem there was a $100+ loss locked in.
>
> Sorry I don't get why you use 2 accounts to simply daytrade a stock.
>
> Eric
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