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Hi Ed & Tom:
<P>Edward Wrote:
<P>Your chart appears to indicate that the downturn since August is a fourth
<BR>wave retracement of a five wave impulse movement. If true, we
could expect
<BR>in the not too distant future to see the Hang Seng take off on a fifth
wave
<BR>to new highs. Am I interpreting this correctly?......Thanks.....Ed
Levine
<P>Tom Wrote:
<P>This mkt. is not one I follow too closely (mostly through Jeff's
<BR>contributions) but based on the way Jeff has it labeled one would
have to
<BR>logically conclude that using Elloitt rules an attempt ("attempt" because
<BR>of the failure possibility) at a new high would be in order but only
after
<BR>a new low to finish off 5 of (c) which would complete all of wave 4.
<P>As usual with Elliott, there are several other quite viable counts that
<BR>wouldn't alter Jeff's labeling in the smaller degrees much at all but
would
<BR>dramatically change the prospects for the Hang Seng. For instance,
the Hang
<BR>Seng could be tracing out a 1-2, 1-2, with a REALLY big 3rd to follow.
<P>This is an interesting mkt. to follow right now because it is sub-dividing
<BR>in Elliott terms in text-book fashion. Not to mention the other
<BR>implications involving the future course of this market.
<P>Jeff Wrote:
<P>Ed, your interpretations of the Hang Seng are exactly what I'm attempting
to convey. As Tom puts it, I'm expecting the market to go for the
final <FONT COLOR="#CC33CC">(C)</FONT> leg of the zigzag and that, in turn,
will complete the whole of Wave<FONT COLOR="#00CC00"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#009900">4
</FONT>of Primary Degree. This will normally brings us to surpass
the recent pivotal low of 8775.88; possibly to the 7,000 levels.
The current corrective downturn has already passed the .618 fibo.( measured
from Primary Wave 1 (Jan. 1995) and the zigzag is going for a 100% retracement
of the entire impulsive moves. As you can see, currently, a very
nice down channel has been formed and we are right at the 50% fibo retracement
(rising wedge) measured from 11661.00. The final Primary Wave
<FONT COLOR="#009900">5</FONT> will commence after the completion of the
zigzag. As to the question of the final fifth taking us to new high.
NORMALLY, it will take us to surpass the 16820 levels but I'll never rule
out the possibility of a truncated fifth. These are only forecasting
of the Hang Seng and isn't tradable. What is tradable is the current
setups. Again, expect a new low in the making but always keep in
mind of the possibility of a truncated wave <FONT COLOR="#33CCFF">5</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">.</FONT><FONT COLOR="#33CCFF">
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">Hope this will clear things out. Regards.</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"></FONT>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000">Have a good one</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR="#000000">Jeff Harteam</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR="#000000">Hong Kong</FONT>
<BR>
<BR><FONT COLOR="#000000"></FONT>
<BR>
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