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Hi Harley,
It was nice to see a balanced report about Ralph's work and his forecasts.
He was meant to be in Australia
last weekend speaking to IFTA. But I guess you got him instead - thanks
for the report.
A few months ago there was a lot of derision on RT about Ralph's call for
the Dow at 10,000.
Ralph started to call for 7,500 when the Dow was below 4,000, everyone poo
pooed him then. He was looking for it to reach 7,500 by the end of this
year. It happened sooner than expected. His work is good but he also
works for a broker
which makes it very politically sensitive to mention the "B" (Bear Market)
word let alone say SELL!!.
His enthusiasm is infectious and he is a great speaker and extremely
capable technician.
David Hunt
Phone 612 9527 4690
Fax 612 9544 4683
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~adest
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> From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: A metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: Randy Burkhardt @ Home <randy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders
Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Ralph Acampora
> Date: Wednesday, November 19, 1997 7:37 PM
>
> Just a quick note about his visit to Minneapolis. In a nutshell he has
> based his Dow 10,000 analysis upon low inflation and low interst rates.
> He took the years 1962 to 1966 as the comparison years. Those years also
> had low interest rates and low inflation. And the Dow went straight up.
> Those were the years when valuations (PEs) expanded. He said that most
> analysist, and Greenspan included, are trapped in the 70s and 80s when
> the Dow was trapped in a trading range. He did say this bull was tired
> and expected sometime next year there would be a bear market. i.e., a
> well needed correction.
>
> He also said that tha US is probable in the best position in a long time
> in terms of being competetive. Japan's structure won't allow for firing
> workers, France is digressing to socialism, and East & West Germany will
> have problems putting there pieces together.
>
> He said be selective in your companies, and make sure you take some off
> the the table and put it someplace else.
>
> If you ever get a chance to hear him speak, do so. It was very good. He
> talked about the struggles of being in the lime light. Was not
> comfortable with it.
>
> Harley
>
>
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