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> From: Bbbazusa@xxxxxxx
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: OPTIONS/CAPLAN/FISHBACK
> Date: Sunday, November 16, 1997 11:00 AM
>
> Have read quite a few questions on ODDS and Don Fishback. Noticed he has
a
> full page add in the new Omega Magazine, giving a $50, 000 check to the
Heart
> Foundation.
> I am no option wizz. I went to one of those intro seminars with him . The
one
> where you pay $80 and then find out you have to buy his software, and
really
> attend the $3000 seminar, and subscribe to his newletter, to reaally
> understand.
> This was my take home message.
> He gave an example of a trade. An old timer asked for clarification
> " Don, you are saying this trade has an 80% chance of success" "Thats
right"
> "But Don the reward is $200 in the trade, at 80% probability, but your
risk
> is $1400, WHAT SORT OF ODDS IS THAT"
Not good. Some of the statistics wizards please correct me if I'm wrong,
but the way I see it:
80% * $200.00 = $160.00
20% * $1400.00 = $ 280.00
$280-$160 = $120.00
Therefore the trade has a NEGATIVE expected return of $120.00, BEFORE
slippage and commission. And if I'm not mistaken, these guys direct clients
to their own brokerage relationships and charge $50 to $75 a round turn.
What they really need to be giving seminars on is how to set up such a
lucrative and legal racket. That's where the big money is!
But, these guys can sure make it sound good!! Anybody ever heard of P.T.
Barnum?
Regards,
Tom Alexander
> Maybe the good Dr. OEX may wish to comment on ODDS type of trading,
without
> necessarily commenting on Don Fishback, although if he wants to give an
> opinion on him I would be glad to hear it.!!!!!
> Edgar
>
>
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