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MKT - MOON EFFECT as seen by others (and me)

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I watch the information on the following link like a hawk.

<P>&nbsp;http://www.programtrading.com/hlc.htm

<P>Yesterday they posted the following:

<P>SPECIAL REPORT:
<BR>You may have heard of the old commodity trading saying, "buy the new
<BR>moon and sell the full". It may be good advise for
<BR>some commodities like beans and greens and corn bread, but for trading
<BR>S&amp;P's or OEX options this year, it hasn't been
<BR>worth a flip. Why? Because so far this year any trading day that also
<BR>happened to be the full moon, has closed Positive 83%
<BR>of the time. So much for old commodity trading sayings, huh? Well,
not
<BR>really. Like most things in the markets there is another
<BR>side of the story. So we asked our computers to give us some additional
<BR>information on trading during a full moon. Here are
<BR>the results.

<P>So far this year we have had 10 full moons. Only two fell on a weekend
<BR>so we used the following Monday as the "full moon
<BR>day". We asked the computers to look for any patterns on the 3 trading
<BR>days before a full moon day, and (since everyone
<BR>wants to buy an option, hold it for a week, and hit a home run) on
the 5
<BR>trading days after a full moon day. What we found is
<BR>very interesting.

<P>As you learned above, full moon days close up 83% of the time. AND that
<BR>is the worst day to be short, as the average drop
<BR>on a full moon day is only 20.10 points on the Dow. BUT, shorting before
<BR>the full moon does much better. The average
<BR>cumulative drop during the three days BEFORE a full moon trading day
is
<BR>90.40 points. That's the equivalent of over 10
<BR>points on the OEX. AND, the best day of the three to be short, or in
<BR>puts, is the day BEFORE the full moon, which averages
<BR>dropping 35.20 points.

<P>BUT, if you really want to go for a big lick in puts, study this. The
<BR>average cumulative drop in the week (5 trading days) after
<BR>a full moon is 168.80 points. That's 19 points on the OEX and not bad
<BR>for a weeks work. The best day to be short is the
<BR>THIRD day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping
72.50
<BR>points. The second best day to be short is the
<BR>FIRST day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping
35.60
<BR>points.

<P>Now before you start thinking that this full moon stuff is a bunch of
<BR>bull, tell us how much and on what day was the biggest
<BR>one day drop in 1996 (so far). We'll even give you a hint. Elaine
<BR>Garzarelli had nothing to do with it. While your at it, tell us
<BR>how much and on what day was the biggest one, and two day drops in
1995.

<P>Give up?&nbsp; The biggest one day drop in 1996 was -216 points on March
8.
<BR>It was the THIRD day after the full moon. The
<BR>biggest one day drop in 1995 was -133 points on July 19. It was the
<BR>fifth day after the full moon. The biggest two day drop
<BR>was that day and the day before, the fourth day after the full moon
when
<BR>the Dow dropped -58 for a total two day drop of
<BR>-191 points.

<P>Of the 15 biggest one day drops in 1996 so far, 11 of them were within
<BR>the time frames examined by our computers during
<BR>the full moon each month. Ten of them fell in the "week" after the
full
<BR>moon. If we ignore the Garzarelli selloff days that means
<BR>that only 2 of the biggest drops this year have NOT been during a full
<BR>moon. Making 10 out of 13 of the biggest drops hitting
<BR>after the full moon. All other things equal, we know of no better time
<BR>to be holding puts.

<P>Only once in the past year has holding puts right after a full moon
not
<BR>worked very well. That full moon was also a "Blue
<BR>Moon", proving once again that that old saying of "once in a Blue Moon"
<BR>really is something unusual.

<P>&nbsp;
<BR>....H. L.Camp, October 1, 1996
<BR>&nbsp;
<BR>&nbsp;

<P>Now to see if such a "blue moon" phenomena still worked&nbsp; I took
<BR>Gary's moontrader program and added an exit after some selected
<BR>number of days.

<P>For this study I made it 3 days.

<P>The results -- using OFFSET to define the day relative to the new/full
<BR>moon at which to buy/sell and the OEX cash market as the basis the
<BR>following table covers results.

<P>EVEN IN A MARKET WITH VERY STRONG POSITIVE BIAS
<BR>IT IS APPARENT THAT SELLING RELATIVE TO THE FULL
<BR>MOON CAN GIVE MUCH BETTER RESULTS THAN BUYING
<BR>IN THE SAME PERIOD.

<P>THE MOON STILL WORKS IT'S MAGIC.

<P>Clyde Lee
<DIR>
<LI>
<TT>&nbsp;&nbsp; OFFSET&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; NetPrft&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
L:NetPrft&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; S:NetPrft</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>1&nbsp; -14.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -10926.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
2980.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -13906.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>2&nbsp; -13.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -1575.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6086.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -7661.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>3&nbsp; -12.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5605.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3038.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -8643.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>4&nbsp; -11.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -10524.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3615.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -14139.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>5&nbsp; -10.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4409.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3999.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -8408.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>6&nbsp;&nbsp; -9.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -2559.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3106.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5665.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>7&nbsp;&nbsp; -8.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4402.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3657.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -8059.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>8&nbsp;&nbsp; -7.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 651.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3293.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -2642.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>9&nbsp;&nbsp; -6.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3918.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4589.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -671.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>10&nbsp; -5.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 16860.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6982.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; [9878.00]</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>11&nbsp; -4.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 11164.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4592.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6572.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>12&nbsp; -3.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5846.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
2091.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3755.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>13&nbsp; -2.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8069.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3527.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4542.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>14&nbsp; -1.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5493.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4340.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1153.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>15&nbsp;&nbsp; 0.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4094.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
5603.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -1509.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>16&nbsp; +1.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4957.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
9617.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4660.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>17&nbsp; +2.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1519.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
9285.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -7766.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>18&nbsp; +3.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5345.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10063.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4718.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>19&nbsp; +4.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8541.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
[13836.00]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5295.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>20&nbsp; +5.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1256.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6935.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5679.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>21&nbsp; +6.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1752.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6538.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4786.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>22&nbsp; +7.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1099.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6436.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5337.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>23&nbsp; +8.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -6512.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-1539.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4973.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>24&nbsp; +9.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -12194.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-6065.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -6129.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>25 +10.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -24934.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-16272.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -8662.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>26 +11.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -12454.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-6182.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -6272.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>27 +12.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -11774.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-8003.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -3771.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>28 +13.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -11111.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-5904.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -5207.00</TT></LI>

<LI>
<TT>29 +14.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -9195.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
-3175.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -6020.00</TT></LI>
</DIR>
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