|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
>I thought this looked interesting enough to check out so I went to your
>web site and was a little dismayed to find that all this trading is
>simulated.
SIMULATION: "The imitative representation of the functioning of one
system or process by the means of the functioning of another."
We have gone to great extremes at the web site to make it clear that we do
not offer trading advice. We offer simulated models as examples of how the
neural net can be integrated into a mechanical trading campaign. We
thought that by clearly describing the entry and exit parameters for these
mechanical models and faithfully tracking the hypothetical trades based on
said parameters, that the published results would reflect more clearly upon
the effectiveness of the neural net then upon the vagaries of individual
entries and exits.
>How can you assume that the price you are getting at 10 pm is the same
>as the price was at 4:15 (entries) or the same as the next day;s open
>(exits).
This assumption was not pulled out of thin air. Prior to establishing and
publishing the mechanical models, we studied the price action of Globex
between 7:00PM and 10:00PM ET as it related to the day session closing
prices. What we found was that the closing price of the day session
usually available during the evening session. When it was not, we found
that it was just as likely that you would get a better price, LONG or
SHORT, then a worse price then the close of the day session. Accordingly,
we thought that using the closing price if the day session was a fair
representation of system performance. Not perfect, just fair. Recently we
have seen huge moves start in the evening session, about the time the
foreign markets are opening. Again, we are finding that the huge moves are
resulting in an equal number of "better' versus "worse" fills from the day
session close.
>Surely you could afford to trade a mini to get an actual real
>time track record. No??
We are and are quite pleased with the results. We will soon be publishing
the Trendy Systems, LLC actual futures' account statements at the web site.
We were hoping to have at least six months of trading the account in
before boasting, which would be in January of 1998. There are also some
legal issues that we think are minor and can be resolved.
>I also wonder if you could give us a quick rundown of why your neural
>net is different from others.
We don't know what it is in the analysis of a dozen inputs, looked at in
hundreds of different arrays, that the neural net is seeing that causes it
to generate it's output from which we are gleaning Buy and Sell decisions.
So it is objectively impossible to answer your question. The 18 month real
time track record, simulated or not, may offer some tangential evidence of
effectiveness that distinguishes Trendy from other neural nets. Or it may
be just a random occurrence of accuracy that is now on the cusp of failure
and then oblivion, like all of the others you mention. For the time being,
we are content that it is reporting something of predictive value, which in
and of itself makes it different from other neural nets.
Allan P. Harris
http://www.TrendySystems.com
|