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dan salyer wrote:
>
> Would like any comments on the Taurus systems, especially the one that
> is now in vogue--TOP 16 SYSTEM--based in Winchester, VA
>
> Thanks
>
> Dan
I have subscribed to the Top 16 fax service for almost the last 6
months. I have not traded it because I only have a small account. They
do present suggested portfolios for accounts as low as $5K but after
having had a bad experience with trading a limited port. with a
different system I've been unable to "pull the trigger" on picking a
port. of just a couple commodities. I'm afraid they'll be the ones that
aren't profitable this year! But I can make some observations about the
system based on the signals I've seen. Perhaps someone who owns the
system rules themselves can add a lot to this.
The author told me the sytem is based on momentum, cycles, and a third
factor I've forgotten. It's a quite active system. It seems to take
trades in the direction of the main trend. In that context, it's quick
to get in (or back in), so it does get in only a little after minor
bottoms (for a buy).
Its stops are probably the unique feature. The initial stops are a
moderate distance away from the mkt. action, but soon after the close
reaches above breakeven, the stops are tightened dramatically. In this
mode, the stop for tomorrow (for a long) may be above todays low, but of
course below the close. If a position is stopped out by mkt. action,
and then the mkt recovers a re-entry is indicated. This is good, but
now the stop is placed at a distance away typical of an initial stop.
If you like to preserve profits and hate to see a winner turn into a
loser, you will like this system. If you like to stay in for the long
haul, riding out minor retracements, even if it means putting some
profits at risk, then you won't like it as well.
Entrys are mkt on open. Initial protective stops are provided either
with a price or with a instruction to place x points from the entry
price.
Some of the initial stops bothered me. Remember that I don't know the
logic behind them, however. Some seem too far away (would you put a
stop on short gold from 311 at approx. 340?. Others seem too close
(value line is always about 600 pts. and is sometimes closer than
yesterday's extreme). But their testing may justify these. (Besides,
is there a system out there where anyone would always like the stops?)
For me, I have discovered that it would be very hard for me to follow a
system unless I knew what the rules were. Taurus does sell the rules
and computer code for the system (I have not purchased them). The
couple times I contacted Taurus, I was able to talk or correspond
directly with the author. It's possible that you could get some generic
info about any issues that bother you without buying the system. The
problem I have with limited funds, is that once you've bought a system
you can't usually return it if you don't like something about it, so for
now I've just about given up on buying a system.
The parameters are optimized for each commodity. Depending on your
view, this is either good because different comms. trade differently, or
bad if you fear overoptimization. They've tested the latest version on
20 years of data, typically 200 trades, so perhaps they have
statistically valid results. Michael Chisolm is a "respected
technician" according to one reviewer I corresponded with.
The system trades beans, soyoil, cattle, coffee, sugar, cotton, crude,
gold, BP, DM, SF, JY, ED, bonds, notes, and value line.
Conrad Bowers
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