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Don Thompson wrote:
<<I basically asked the question; How many wave 4's retrace more than
61.8 percent of the distance from wave 2 and wave 3?
I don't think very many. So my money is on that the ABC correction is
over since the retracement was over 61.8 percent.>>
Don,
Nothing is for sure.........ever. Elliott is a game of probabilities. My
experience has been that you will see a wave 4 retrace 61.8% of wave 3 at
times. The times you see it the most often, are times when the 5th wave
"fails". Fails to reach the extent of wave 3. In this present case, if we are
finishing up a wave 4 from 10/28, and a wave 5 to the downside does
materialize, the chances are good we will not reach the 10/28 lows (wave 5
"fails").
One last point to consider is that the correction from 8/7 may not be a
simple ABC. The rise you see from 10/28 certainly has a distinctive "three
wave" look about it, and if you don't like the idea of this rise being a wave
4, then you might consider it wave D of a triangle. Nobody said this affair
must end with a simple ABC. A triangle with the third wave the longest (wave
C) is quite acceptable. The triangle scenario would necessarily involve a
wave E to the downside, so with either scenario, ABC or ABCDE, we should have
a retest of the 10/28 low. Doesn't have to get there. A clue it's underway
will be a quick thrust to the downside through the 10/28 - 10/31 lower
trendline.
PJLaird
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