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<DIV><FONT size=2>Keep tuned to <A
href="http://www.Bloomberg.com";>www.Bloomberg.com</A> to keep up on the Asian
mkts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Here is what's happening:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<H3>Asia/Pacific</H3><PRE> Value Net Chg Pct Chg Date
NKY NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17038.36 .00 20:26
HSI HANG SENG STOCK INDEX 10498.20 -646.14 -5.80 3:02
AS30 ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDX 2242.00 -235.00 -9.49 20:26
STI SING: STRAITS TIMES INDU 1502.41 -117.49 -7.25 20:26</PRE><PRE><FONT face=Arial>There goes Oz !</FONT></PRE><PRE><FONT face=Arial>Denis</FONT></PRE></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Oct 28 19:59:47 1997
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Date: Mon, 27 Oct 1997 20:17:55 -0600
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From: Dennis Peterson <mig@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: FUTR GEN: CIS "So, You wanna' Be a Short-term Pro Trader....."
References: <3448FEDC.60DC@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Status:
Walt,
Monday's December Wheat looks an expansion bar with the Open and Close
at the extremes. With a bar like this should I be expecting price to
reverse on Tuesday?
Your description of Single Expansion Bars, and what to expect when one
is present is not clear to me. Could you please try to clarify this for
me. I have attached a gif image of WZ.
Dennis
Walt Downs wrote:
>
> ****************************************************
> The Key Elements of Successful Short-term Trading
> By
> Walt Downs
> *****************************************************
>
> Section1 Contraction, Expansion, and Price Movement
(SNIP)
> Price Movement Within the 3 Day Market Rythm:
>
> Price movement within the 3 day market rythm can be defined almost to
> exclusion, to the
> following:
>
> Single Bar Action
>
> Expansion Bars -- A OHLC bar which is signifigantly larger than
> previous bars.
> When a bar of this type is present, and the Open and Close are at
> extremes of the
> bar, two statistical factors are now present:
> 1. There is an 85-90% chance that prices will trade higher the next
> day.
> 2. There is a less than 50% chance that prices will close higher than
> today's high. Now the trader has discovered a statistical "edge" in
> which
> he knows the market is likely to reverse direction the next day.
>
> Contraction Bars-- A OHLC bar which is signifigantly smaller than
> previous bars.
> When a bar of this type is present, one statistical factor is now
> present:
> 1. Brekaouts from the High or Low of this bar the next day, will tend
> to
> continue strongly in the direction of the breakout. Now the trader has
> discovered a statistical "edge" in which he knows that the market is
> likely
> to continue it's direction from specific points the next day.
>
> Multiple Bar Action
>
> Swing Bars -- In order for a market to trend higher or lower, it is a
> mathematical
> fact that a higher or lower bar must be established. Therefore when a
> trader sees
> any two OHLC bars that exhibit the following pattern, he knows that
> there is a
> distinct possiblity of the market continuing in a two day set which is
> statistically signifigant:
>
> Pattern1-- Today's bar has a High rouglhy equal to the center of the
> previous day's
> bar, and today's bar has a low which is lower than the previous day's
> Low. Now
> the trader knows there is a statistical likelyhood that if the next
> day's price action
> penetrates the High of today's bar, then the price will continue in the
> direction of
> the breakout.
>
> Pattern2 -- Today's bar has a Low rouglhy equal to the center of the
> previous day's
> bar, and today's bar has a High which is Higher than the previous day's
> High. Now
> the trader knows there is a statistical likelyhood that if the next
> day's price action
> penetrates the Low of today's bar, then the price will continue in the
> direction of
> the breakout.
>
> Completion of the Pattern -- If Pattern1 or Pattern2 is present, and
> today's Price
> action does indeed breakout, then on the next day of trading, the
> trader knows that
> statistically there is a strong chance that the market will reverse.
> Why this is so
> will become apparent when reading the following section on Floor
> Traders
> (Enemy/Friend number one for all OTF (off the floor) traders. ).
>
> Summary: The above information dictates 90% of all short-term market
> action. By
> aligning himself with these patterns, the trader gives himself the
> needed statistical edge
> in trading a market.
(SNIP)
> Walt Downs
> CIS Trading
> http://www.cistrader.com
--
http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/ -- HomePage
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