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Ok, Rick, I'm game, so how do we figure time? And I ain't got no
telescope!
Darrell
Subject:
A Meeting In Time
Date:
Sat, 18 Oct 1997 15:47:04 -0700
From:
" Rick Ratchford" <ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To:
<TTC-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
=======================================
A Meeting In Time
=======================================
by Rick J. Ratchford
There is no way to get around it. For any event, it must take time to
unfold, and then end at some time. If you were to plan a trip from Los
Angeles, Ca. To Grants Pass, Or., from the time you actually started
moving, the clock starts ticking.
As you pass each landmark on the way, you can note that time has
changed.
Never backward, always foreward it ticks away. Once you reach your
destination, you can then note the obvious, that you have just traveled
900
plus miles and it took you 14 hours to do it.
This is no different that what transpires in the Stock and Commodity
marketplace. As each price ticks away, so is time. Soon, there comes a
point
when price stops going in one direction and starts in another. It will
do
this when the time comes.
Yes, just like life there is a time and event relationship,
multi-dimensional to be exact, and yet many traders only look at the
markets
in one-dimension. Disregarding the importance of squaring both price and
time, most traders look merely at solving for price alone. This is a
disadvantage.
I always like to quote W.D. Gann because I agree with much of what he
has
said about the markets, so I'll do so again. Gann has made comment that
TIME
should be solved for first. I wholeheartedly agree. Then, once you have
time
as a reference, you can attempt to solve for price or just wait for it
to
turn on that day.
Consider this: What if you were granted just one piece of the puzzle,
either
to know the exact price of a turn or the exact time. Which would you
choose?
In previous writings of Time and Price trading, many opponents made
comments
that they would rather know the exact price instead of the exact time of
a
trend change. So for now, you are granted this wish. Let's see how well
it
works for you.
You now know the exact price of a market turn, it is 10.48 in a stock
PLL,
Pittsburgh Lava Lamps. Now prices are currently moving up and finally
hits
10.48 and closes at 10.37. You short this really good because it hit
your
turn price. The next day it then moves up past 10.48 to go to 11.43, and
you
lose a bundle.
What happened here? Did you guess? That's right, you don't know WHEN
10.48
will be the turn for this stock. It can happen this year, or next, or 10
years from now. Sure, it will turn on this price someday, but you don't
have
a time reference, do you?
Now, you are wiser when asked which you would prefer, and you choose
time.
You now know that the market will change trend on November 17th of this
year. Do you care at what price? No. If the market was rising till that
day,
the very next day afterwards you just short it, and short it good. You
also
know WHEN to expect the NEXT trend change and the next. Look mom, no
hands!
I hope this drives home the importance of learning to solve for Time as
well
as for Price. Knowing Time will put the odds of winning on your side,
and
that is what we want, isn't it?
So, the next time you are expecting the market to turn at a particular
price, ask yourself this question, "Do I know what time it is?"
Cheers!
:)
rick
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