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Elementary, my dear Watson. You just go and play, BINGO!
Once a support price has been penetrated by any significant amount, you then
look to the next support level. Consider it like a cartoon, where one falls
thru maybe two or three floors until finding one that will support it.
When solving for dynamic sup/res levels, you must calculate for each day as
the values are different for each day. Only if you know exactly which day it
will bottom can you just solve for all possible support levels in advance.
Without doing so, one is left with the job of having to confirm a turn by
watching for a support level to hold, and prices to turn. With a market like
the SnP's, such confirmation on a daily basis can be quite expensive. Thus
the Time Factor is so important.
Now, assuming that 10/17 is indeed a turn day, we can at least note if it
found support or not.
Attached to this message find one of TTC's calculators used to solve for
dynamic sup/res levels. Using a previous formation and calculating for
10/17, it appears that Level 3 has noted 934.20 as support. Considering that
the low on 10/17 was 935.25, this appears to be a resistive area for prices.
Without the benefit of time, one cannot just assume it will stop here. If I
was to solve for this Monday, 10/20, this support value would be a tad
lower, and prices can just as well continue down and meet it. If it wants to
be real ambitious, it can go for the next support level down.
Consider that even W.D. Gann recognized that there are price 'levels',
important resistance areas spread out across a series of prices. What Gann
did was align these prices based on TIME, which he ascertained using partly
the heavenly bodies.
In my particular forecast, as one who is merely a 'student' of the markets,
was to point out that we would make lower prices this week and give some
idea of prices it could go down to. No pinpoint day was offerred. Obviously,
it went down farther and if I were to be watching this market to trade
myself, I would narrow it down to the exact day I'm expecting a turn and
then watch for it to hit one of my support price levels.
I'm only happy it made lower weekly prices to confirm my forecast. Now,
prices should start to rise as I only expected ONE week of lower prices.
Noting that Friday was the lowest day of the week and made the weekly low, I
can only ascertain from this that we have seen our bottom, and also Level 3
of the calculation of this day must hold true. Otherwise, even if just
Monday 10/20 made a lower low before moving up as I expect, it will appear
as a lower low week on the weekly chart and blow my one week only lower low
theory based on my cycle work. You can still trade it just one day off, but
that is besides the point in precision forecasting.
Anyway, for those unfamiliar with the concept of time and price, this
explanation hopefully will help. Know both TIME and PRICE, and it would be
easier to narrow down your sup/res prices. As the time changes, so does your
sup/res prices since it is naturally dynamic.
cheers!
:)
rick
****************************************************
FutureSoft Publishing - Precision Trading
http://FSoftPublishing.com
****************************************************
-----Original Message-----
From: GGray1155@xxxxxxx <GGray1155@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, October 18, 1997 12:37 PM
Subject: Re: mkt:Standard & Still Bored 500
>In a message dated 97-10-18 04:36:52 EDT, ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ( Rick
>Ratchford) writes:
>
><< highly probable support prices based on the most recent
> formation at Level 3 - 954.65 or Level 4 - 949.10.
>
> Do with this information as you will.
>
> cheers!
> :)
> rick >>
>
>
>SnP went significantly below 949.10... What do you think will happen based
>on the new low??? Thanks,
>
>Gary
>
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