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, I wouldn't touch this puppy since I cannot find the anything
> to confirm its current bottom.
>
> cheers!
> :)
> rick
>From a philisopher's point of view I DID find some arguments for support
right now(actually 16...).
1. A gann line drawn with the ratio of 89(rise)/144 (run) =0,618 attached
to the the bottom of last correction on Aug 21 hits this this Fridays low
exactly. Supporting prices at level
2. Squaring time and price on the last correction and out of that producing
a gann grid correction's high (180) and low(154.5), will place Friday's
low precisely in the middle of a crossing. Supporting prices at that level
3. Connecting the tops on June 10 and aug 8, we have a neckline from an
inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. We have just returned to test that line.
Wednesday we broke below it but the day formed what could be viewed as an
inverted hammer, transforming that negative incident to a bullish incident.
Very bullish indeeed, since failures often generate violent reactions the
other way. Also please follow the line all the the way to the left and you
will find that the line is touching another top on May 16.
4. Therefore also I don't think we will touch the support line from Jul 27
and Aug 27. A fact that also signals strength to me
5. Studying the last two correction (if Thursday WAS a bottom) we find they
are similar in length. The first one giving back 14.17% from its top level
(180) and the last one giving back15.02% from its top level 196.
6. Interstingly both reactions broke the 0,618 support level by almost the
same distance (3,25 and 3,39). In my opinion, both these items bringing
support to price.
7. Looking at 13 (fib) day Bollinger Bands we find that the last three
bottoms (if sep 18 is a bottom) 6/26, 8/21 and 9/18 touched the lower band
on all three occasions and turned up. Indicating to me that we are now
heading north.
8. Checking out the Micro level, we also find a couple of interesting
things: On a close basis we actually have an inverted Head and Shoulder
with the left shoulder on Sep 12. We broke the neckline this Friday by
0.15. Not much – but other arguments considered, a step in the right
direction (if you are long).
9. On the same level, in the last correction, looking at On Balance Volume,
we find a divergence: OBV trading lower and Price = H&S. BUT drawing a
trend line we find that OBV broke out upside of that line, which price did
not. (This is basis closing prices).
10. We must also remember that we are at a time when many markets change
trend. The Fall Equinox today. But did we change trend last Thursday?
Perhaps. Remember we had a solar eclipse and an astroday last Tuesday, and
Merriman shows in his Goldstudies that when we have two important astro
events, the turning point may very well be right between the two. Hence
Thursday! (supporting the market).
11. Sunday 21st Gann Year – 180 degrees. => change in trend.
12. Please remember Clyde Lee's Swing Machine forecast CIT on the 18th?
13. And Norman's pure astrological reason for a CIT this weekend
14. Unfair advantage's seasonality index with data from 1972 shows an
uptrend Sep 15 – Sep26.
15. A 21 day DYNAMIC moving average has been flat to up since the bottom
7/21, indicating trend is still up.
16 And please rember Walt's post on the 16th which started this whole
coffee thing, indicating a breakout on the 17.
However, what worries me?
Well,
A: Supertrader's almanac shows a seasonal trend that is DOWN Sep 22-Sep 30
B: and Using Dynamic trader to check for clusters using a 10% swing chart
and using the last 8 h/l points the computer gives back a high probabillity
for a CIT on Sep 23/24, same as Rick.
However being a philosopher with a very limited trading account I probably
will put my 2 cents in a call option at the opening.
Regards
stig
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