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This is a re-post of a message that apparently did not get through the
first time:
CIS TGR Trades and Outlook Post # 4
The attached is the 4th post in a series of 4.
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
Message-ID: <34257170.51ED@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 21 Sep 1997 15:11:44 -0400
From: Walt Downs <knight@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: knight@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Organization: Commodity InfoSystems <http://www.cistrader.com>
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To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Futr Gen: CIS TGR Trades and Outlook Post # 4
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RT'ers please read CIS posts 1, 2, and 3 before reading this one.
Based on all that I have learned, assimialted and know,
These are the trades for the week:
Dec SP500 - The SP500 Bull has moved too far. Within 3 days, the SP wil
fold, losing 20 points. After the SP trades at 948-950, The Dragons will
wake up, and decide the final outcome. If the SP closes and holds below
940, the back of the longterm bull is broken, and the Dragons will
move to 920.
US TBOND - This market seems quicker thatn the SP and may provide
valuable advance information for the fate of the SP over the next few
trading days. Within 3 days, Bonds lose 2 points. Consider Selling
115 and taking profit at 113-15. If the Market breaks and holds at
112, then the Dragons will move, and it will be likely that we have
a new baby bear on our hands.
US Dollar Index - The Back of the bull dollar has already broken,
confirming our hypothesis of the weak bond and stocks. Unless
Drogons consider Bonds a good hedge against the weak dollar (And
Dragons don't seem to be thinking like this right now), this will
hurt the bonds. Unless we pull a rogue Dragon, The Dollar will have
a hard time making it abov 99.
Dec J Yen - Look for immediate improvement in the price
of the Yen. This will confirm the lack of confidence the
Dragons have in bonds and stocks.
Dec Swiss Franc - Unless the Tigers can drive the Franc
below 6815 soon, the Bear's back is broken, and the Franc
will trade higher.
Dec DMark - The Tigers may well attack, and drive the Mark to
5600, but after that, it will probably be all Bull for a while.
Dec British Pound- The Dragons have left. Look for weakness, if
the Tigers can't hold the market at 160. If they fold, we will
see the Pound at 1.5750.
Dec Corn - Broken Bull. IF the Tigers can not successfully drive
the Corn bull back over 265-270 within the first trading days
of the week, then SELL Corn at it's current levels, and take
profit at 252.
Nov Soybeans - MAJOR Tiger territory right now. NO bulls or
bears will be present until beans hit either 655 or 625.
At these levels, we are going to see a few Dragons popping up,
and the fate of the market will be decided.
Dec Wheat - Broken Bull. Wheat no higher than 4.00 in near
future. Possible orderely progression as Tigers drive the
baby bear to 380. At 380, a Dragon could show up, so be
careful. :) Until then, watch out for the rogue Tiger, and
SELL minor retracements.
November Heating Oil - What a ruckus. The bulls, bears and Tigers
are out in force. Dangerous but lucrative terrain for philosophers.
The bull has the advantage here, as Tigers will try to drive things
higher in the near-term. If the market is driven above and holds
55.70 there is a strong chance the Tigers will get 58.00 before a
Dragon shows up, and the bull is consumed.
Dec Coffee - Baby bull in the making. The Bear might have one
final gasp, as the Tigers take the market to 160, but that will
be it. With El Nino looming, the Dragons will be hungry, and they
will like the taste of 160. After a few Tigers serve as appetizers
the other Tigers will get the drift, and start running with the
Dragon. Nice market for vertical call spreads if we reach 160,
or the market immediately shows strength on Monday.
Oct. Sugar - Strong Bull potential. The Bear has been
hanging out for awhile and is now glutted and weak.
the Tigers will see this, and come running. If a Dragon
gets interested, we will see Sugar near 12.00 very quickly
Expect the Tigers to go after 11.50 early this week.
Well, I hope everyone found the posts enjoyable and
informative......
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
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