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Corn seasonals:
1. The Spring High came right on que. April 1, right in the middle of
the average range. High for the year most likely between March 15 to
the 1st week of May. Then it heads lower as it did this year. This is
the most reliable play. Actually, it's a Buy the July contract on the
last week of February and exit the 1st week of April.
2. The Summer is usually a slide down. Some years have hit a relative
1st low on the July 4th weekend. This is the Corn 'silking' stage and
good soil moisture up to that point will drive the price down. Most
years are not drought years. There are counter trend rallies sometimes
in August. We got a better than expected one.
3. The market seasonally tries to find a bottom, usually a rounded
bottom, between Sept 1 thru Nov 1. It's not rounding this year.
4. Some fundamentals. Carry over is small in all the grains. The
typical bearish harvest pressure may not play out fully.
5. The best reliable seasonals are not at this time of year. The Buy at
the end of February, exit in 1st April is best.
The second best is Sell in mid April, exit mid July.
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