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JER3CUBE@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Hi: Ryan
>
> What is your "take" on Corn right here. It looks like it is in a
> support
> area?
>
> What seasonal pattern should we concern ourselves with.
>
> Thx,
>
> GerryB/jer33:3
> learner/teacher
Gerry,
>From a 'seasonal' perspective, I think corn should be going down now
(Estimate 230 - 235) due to the historical harvest/post harvest decline
and lack of any significant damage from the weather, and a relatively
sufficient crop report. However, the Technicals strongly suggest an
upward movement. Hence this seemingly static..."It should have gone to
$3.00+, but didn't" situation in the market. (My take.)
However, the real question isn't MY 'take' on the current market, but
how the commercials, funds, AND China are playing the current game. As,
no matter what MY take is on the market, all that matters is THEIR take
on the market, and how I should respond to their actions. (All
information that I don't have a clue on.) Since I don't know, all I can
do is watch closely on an intraday level and trade at that level. At
this time, I would be hard pressed to take an overnight position. It's
as though with corn, everybody is waiting to get an indication as to
what everyone else is going to do. OR, the major players are setting up
the market to make THEIR market. At this point, if I was going to
positional trade this market, it would only be with options. Over the
next month or so, my general inclination would be to expect a channel
pattern. This is simply based on my preponderance of what I've seen,
heard, and read; and MY interpretation of it. (I.e. - big deal.)
(I am a professional code programmer and web site\server developer by
trade. - A person should always go with their strengths.) I AM, however,
currently trading the Corm market 'intraday' (along with a few others)
with the use of a program that I wrote using Paradox's PAL language.
(DOS environment- its quicker than object code using 10+ mb tables, and
with this app, I'm not looking for the 'pretty' charts.)
It does nothing more than show statistical DAILY 'time' patterns, and
answer statistical questions 'on the fly'. It does not 'project'
ANYTHING. No FDATES, no Fib or Gans. It doesn't even tell me where the
moon is in relation to Jupiter.
(I do, however, firmly believe that harmonics, and resonance exist in
EVERYTHING in the universe. Its just at this point, I simply DON'T KNOW
how to trade it/them. And since, just like the 'market harmonics', my
'bills' occur at very regular intervals also, ... that is MONTHLY ..., I
have to use what I have ... what I DO know ... and use it NOW.)
So how DOES this application help me with corn?
It is a 'WHAT IF, WHAT HAPPENED, AND WHAT TIME OF DAY' tool. AND IT IS A
TOOL ONLY.
I can ask the application questions such as: "What is the predominant
daily CHANGE/MOVEMENT pattern exhibited over any time frame that I ask
of it. I can 'ask' it questions such as 'If the price goes up, say, 75%
of the 10 day range average within 45 minutes of opening....
historically what is the odds of the market then reversing and going
down xx%? In fact, it can respond to ANY statistical / mathematical
query that I present to it. (That's one of the beauties of a Relational
Database with QBE - Query By Example capabilities.) As I am continuing
to develop my database of 'situations' and percentages of probabilities,
I can compare what is happening on a real time basis to this database
(quickly), and then (with the current fundamental influences of the
day)... decide if a trade is warranted at that minute.
What this does for me is to simply show trading tendencies that seem to
occur and reoccur in various types of markets. I don't care what the
current price level is at, just what 'type' of daily pattern is forming.
And then relate this to the predominant range exhibited in the market,
and the perceived daily trend, COUPLED with any perceived dominate
fundamental influences for the day. (After all, my intention is to be
out of the market in a few minutes/hours anyway.)
For example, with corn, I've noticed that price seems to makes one to
two daily major directional changes the first half hour to 45 minutes or
so, and again, the last 30 to 45 minutes for the most part. (Common
knowledge, agreed.) The program lets me track the market ticks, (I use
Interquote Real time - tick by tick) and then do an 'on the fly' daily
Pattern comparison from historical data, as the Interquote charts are
developed during the day.) For example, if the average 20 day range is
3-4 points, and the market opens down 1-2 points and then shoots up 4+
points in the first 10 minutes or so, and then seems to hover for about
5-10 minutes, I can then do a historical check to see what statistically
happened previously. In this case, I usually will go short during the
hover period, if I felt the daily market trend was going down. These
are the kinds of patterns this application can help me with.
I try to determine the daily trend (fundamentals and technicals) and
trade WITH the daily trend. If the market opens differently to what I
thought the daily trend would be (first 30 -45 minutes or so) I usually
pass on it. To this point, I've never used a stop order, and have made
all my trades at the market. Fills have been very quick except for one
time. I've only held one overnight position thus far.
THE RESULTS SO FAR? ----- I've been actively trading since June. (A
short time, but everybody starts from some point.) I trade 1 or 2
contracts at a time. I started with a margin account of $5000. I've
managed to build the account up to about $13,000. My biggest loss so
far was in Wheat, 2 contracts.... $650 plus commissions. 6.5 point drop.
(22 minute time frame before I bailed.) I seem to hit about 80 % of the
time (average $50-$150 per trade per contract, 1-3 points) using this
method when I see that the market WILL LET ME IN. (small, quick trades.)
MY LONG TERM GOALS WITH THIS METHOD?
My goal is to build my account up to a level where I can trade 10 to 20
contracts at a time instead of 1-2. This way, I feel it will be worth my
time and I can begin to make a living at this.
MY DAILY ATTITUDE WITH THIS?
If I was wrong, I kick myself in the butt; forget about it; have a beer
at the end of the day, and watch Star Trek. If I was right, I replace
'kicking myself' with 'jumping up and down while smiling' and then have
the beer and watch Star Trek.
In the mean time, trading sure beats the stress of having to meet a
deadline with code programing for some company.
Regards,
Ryan Garrett
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