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When you do your analysis think of the cardcounter analogy. If you want
to see a classic example read Schwaeger's New Market Wizzards and read
the chapter about Blair Hull. CardCounter turned option trader...his
firm is one of the biggest on the CBOE.
As a card counter Blair would lose most of the time....small manageable
losses...but losers most of the time. That gives him the ability to win
big when the % are in his favor. A succesful cardcounter will ante and
fold far more often than not. Many of the well know(and many of the
less well know)success stories in options will lose almost all the
time..then have a great year with one trade. It is hard to be that
patient, but.....
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