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Bill Eykyn wrote:
>
> I am intrigued as Tom for the reply - or have I missed it? I've been having
> server problems with MSN, which may account for it. Mr Ratchford is normally
> pretty hot a responding to points which allow him to mention these F-Dates
> (that all his TCCC people have paid for the privilege of understand) but which
> we ordinary RTers no little about. Just for once the point relates to a
> subject that I study a little, so I'd love to hear the answers, please.
>
> Bill Eykyn
Bill, your sincerity for information would be better expressed by
leaving out the subtle pokes, eh?
I will explain time day trading again. Please save for future
references.
HOW TO TRADE WITH TIME DAYS
=============================
Time Days are expected to mark significant periods in a markets movement
in price. They provide the DATE on which we may expect a change in
trend, a temporary PAUSE against the prevailing trend for a few days, or
an ACCELERATION day where the market makes a move larger than the daily
average in the direction of the current trend. The majority of the time
it marks a temporary change in trend.
Any self-respecting trader knows that even with the best methods of
locating these time days, that certain rules need to be developed to
help the trader deal with the inherent UNCERTANTIES of time days. When
it comes to good time days, we are HIGHLY certain that some significant
event of market prices are expected to unfold with a reasonable time
frame of that time day. In other words, a day off the mark is quite
customary for a time day to be allowed to be off.
We must add to the problem that not only is our window 3 days wide, but
is it a trend change, a trend pause (only when against the current
trend), or an Acceleration day?
I've provided my members with rules on how to trade Fdates, which are
the time days I provide with cycle and trend commentary. Much of these
rules have started to appear on mailings from competitors. Some have
even admitted my material being the source of their works. So although I
will provide some of these rules here knowing that they will most likely
be used for the ventures of others who compete with me, fortunately the
cycle work and special trend work I provide members will not be so
easily duplicated, which are essential for really effective time day
trading. One must
RULES:::
1) Trade ONLY in the direction of the trend. Suggest the short term
trend.
2) Trade off the TOP or BOTTOM of a RETRACEMENT that is marked by a time
day.
3) Confirm the time day with PRICE. This will be a pre-calculated
SUPPORT or RESISTANCE price.
4) If price NOT confirmed, consider the possibility that the time day is
a day late and wait.
5) If price is confirmed ONE DAY EARLY, consider the possibility that
the time day is also a day early and use a bigger stop.
6) Once PRICE and TIME agree on the same day (within the window), enter
the trade risking no more than a pre-determined amount, such as a small
fraction of the account size, or such hard and fast figures as $200/ct
for Cattle, $300 for Grains, etc.
7) If a time day marks what may seem like a possible turn AGAINST the
current trend, EXPECT it to be temporary RATHER than a major trend
change. In other words, if the market trend is down and we bottom on a
time day, then the next day does not go lower than our time day low,
don't assume we are just going to start going up for any real length of
time. EXPECT that low to be taken out quickly, even as soon as the next
day. Whether this happens or not, you will be ready to profit from it.
8) If a time day marks what may seem like a possible turn AGAINST the
current trend, prepare to go WITH the trend in the event that the time
day is really a pause, and not a turn. Do this by first placing your
entry just beyond the time day price if prices immediately hits
resistance or support the following day. Example. If prices have been
coming down, and we stop at a time day, then the next day it goes up
just like a turn is expected to do, but it immediately hits the first or
second level of resistance, be prepared for this market to then proceed
in the direction it was going prior to the time day. In this case, down.
An entry to short just below the time day bottom would work wonders for
your pocketbook.
9) If the situation is the same as #7 and #8 above, yet no resistance is
hit the first day after the time day, and prices seem to just HOOVER
over the time day bottom without breaking it but not doing much on the
upside as well, again prepare to place that entry order below the time
day bottom.
10) If the situation is the same as #7 and #8 above, yet it took more
than one day to reach resistance, look to short the market at one of
those resistance areas as opposed to waiting for it to come all the way
back through the time day bottom to enter. Even better is to wait for
another time day and price at one of those resistance areas to short the
market as per Rule #2.
11) If you look to ONLY trade with the trend, you prevent the
unfortunate situation of being in the opposite side of an acceleration
day move.
12) Until you learn to ANTICIPATE and FADE a time day, it is best to
confirm your time day bottoms/tops. You may miss some good trades in
fast markets, but you will not lose your shirt if you happen to be a day
early on one of these fast markets as well.
NOW ON BONDS
===============
The comments on Bonds are quite simple. There was reference to a couple
of FDates and one Planetary date. Also, a cycle date was mentioned as
well.
The Fdate on 8/5 was one that PAUSED the downward move for a couple of
days. A move to the upside in BONDS immediately reached RESISTANCE and
then shot down breaching that time day. A short could have been entered
at either the RESISTANCE price or below the time day low.
The Fdate for 8/11 which is Monday can be a day off as a time day is
allowed to be. Yet I must at this time state though I it is a my website
that the program is calling for 8/12, not 8/11. This is also posted on
the weekly Report.
If this market moves up to our 8/12 (cycle/Fdate) or 8/13 (planet
date), this would be considered a RETRACEMENT TOP that we are expecting
for another bloop down. This is what is EXPECTED, not a fact. As long as
the short term trend remains DOWN, one would wait for price and then
short this market. If the price was to shoot up like gangbusters come
these dates and surpass previous tops, we would then end up with another
short term trend change.
The CYCLE date indicated a TOP as I mentioned last week. It did this
because cycles alternate from TOP to BOTTOM, and the last few of CYCLE
dates I came up with were perfect TOP, BOTTOM, TOP, BOTTOM...so I
speculated that this one will be a TOP.
Day traders have their own way of trading and some may use time days to
control their daily bias. But they are usually used by those who trade
for a day or longer.
Anyway, I hope this answers your question as to my post on time days,
including the BONDS time day. It is without a doubt that 8/12 or 13
should mark a significant price action of some sort. With proper trading
rules and tools, you should be able to take advantage of it.
cheers!
:)
rick
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