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I am intrigued as Tom for the reply - or have I missed it? I've been having
server problems with MSN, which may account for it. Mr Ratchford is normally
pretty hot a responding to points which allow him to mention these F-Dates
(that all his TCCC people have paid for the privilege of understand) but which
we ordinary RTers no little about. Just for once the point relates to a
subject that I study a little, so I'd love to hear the answers, please.
Bill Eykyn
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From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Tom Stein
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 1997 4:26 pm
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: RE: Bond Warning
Rick...
I am a very slow learner, but I am trying to gain a little knowledge regarding
your time projections(ie:are they of any value to me or not???)...What exactly
does the post below say???? Maybe a quick couple of sentences with some
defined parameters would help or maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand
what you are trying to say...
Thankyou for your help...Tom Stein comfut@xxxxxxx
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From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Rick_Ratchford
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 1997 12:39 PM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: fut:Bond Warning
Greetings Fellow Market Anticipators!
It just dawned on me that some may not be familiar with the workings of
time day trading and may need a quick reminder based on some of the
posts made on these lists (RT/TTC) the last few days.
As we come upon next week, we are anticipating some action to occur in
the Bond market for 8/13 as per Norman's planet work.
As well, I've made mention of a Fdate for 8/11, and a cycle date for
8/12. What we have here are dates, dates, dates. :|
As a general rule, unless someone has finally discovered a way to
isolate the EXACT day everytime (and is living in complete
luxury/seclusion on some island), we normally give a one trading day
grace to be off.
Now, with good trading rules/techniques, this is plenty as long as you
are getting excellent dates in the first place that are usually no more
than one day off. Otherwise, give it up.
When we deal with trading, we deal with days that are trading days only.
Weekends are non-existant on our charts. Yet, weekends tend to throw a
wrench in our mental divisions of one trading day to the other.
What am I talking about?
For one, we are waiting for this coming Monday (8/11) for some kind of a
turn for T Bonds due to a Fdate. We may be completely ignoring this
week. The reason may be since this week and next week are divided by 2
non-trading days called a weekend. If you remove these 2 non-trading
days so that it matches that of our price charts, then mark 8/11 on that
chart, what clarity then do we end up with?
Friday is one day before 8/11. Tuesday is one day after. For a turn in
the T Bond market, make sure you look at FRI/MON/TUE.
I believe by my offering CYCLE data as well, I may have advertently
gotten some traders to ONLY think HIGH for 8/11, 12, 13 (Normans Day).
CYCLES data is valuable, but can invert on you without notice. I offer
this data to 'assist' other traders, not confuse. I think I may have
done both.
So I offer a warning. The Fdate of 8/11 may have marked a bottom for
this market, and 8/13 (Normans date) may be the HIGH as depicted by the
CYCLE as well (CYCLE DATES are RARELY precise on time.)
For the veteran trader, this poses very little problem since there are
other signs that must come to play. But for those not so seasoned, take
heed to this information made available to you. Don't run out and go
LONG because you expect a Fdate bottom, nor short.
On the phone with Tom Alexander a couple days prior to this big drop in
T Bonds, we both agreed that HIGH volatility was coming up real soon for
the Bonds. I think we're seeing some of it starting now. It is a
possibility.
I've laid out my thoughts here to try to clarify best I can about
trading based on time. I don't know what will happen on 8/13 since that
is not my forecast but Normans. I neither confirm nor invalidate it.
As for the Cycle date of 8/12, that is just extra fluff and is not what
I base my decisions on, so move that aside as well for now.
Yet, for the 8/11 Fdate, I take these dates seriously, and that this
time day for Monday may be one day early (Friday, the big drop down).
With that possibility, the Fdate may have already happened. You must
prepare for that possibility. Wait for confirmation by making sure that
Monday provides a higher low than 112-08. If this low is not exceeded,
the time day is in (a day early) and you start looking for your rally
top. Sure it MIGHT make a lower bottom on Monday although it closed near
the top of the range Friday to be right on the nose. Volatility does
some strange things to markets. That is why confirmation is important. I
personally use PRICE to confirm and keep my risks low. But you may use
whatever works for you.
So, consider these words, although obviously not the final word on the
subject, and be careful if you were planing to short come Monday
expecting a top. In my charting work, a week ago I detected that T Bonds
were softenening at the top and made mention of that in my Fdate
mailings. Taking out our previous lows confirms this, and also says in
very loud words 'DON'T LOOK FOR LONGS WHILE THIS TREND IS DOWN!'.
Yes, we 'may' have a bottom in. So what? Go ahead and risk if you wish.
My advice is to NOT to go long UNTIL both the weekly AND the micro trend
marks an UP TREND. An old saying is that "Bottom Pickers and Top Pickers
soon become Cotton Pickers". I wish to actually modify that saying to
actually/factually read as "Bottom Pickers and Top Pickers WHO TRADE
COUNTER TO THE TREND soon become Cotton Pickers".
Be careful and good trading to all!
cheers!
:)
rick
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