RE: The Sky will drop about 5%

["Ronny Kraft" <GOTHAMNYC@xxxxxxx>]

Rather than deal with the guilt of being called a "taciturn" by the honorable 
Mr. Kallaus I will give this group a small justification for my recent market 
prognostication.
	1. Intraday high prices of the market have increased to a 21 day high. 
Nonetheless, the advance-decline oscillator and the up/down volume oscillator 
has been negative. I am reading this divergence (and rather unusual event), as 
a very strong bearish signal that by my analysis has historically been 
followed by downside price movement.
	2. In addition the Price Phase indictor (an indicator that I affectionately 
call a MACD on crack; and an indicator that I love and use often for 
confirmation of broad based signals) is positive but volume distribution has 
started to advance. This is a nonconformation that, regardless of the type of 
market, is a bearish signal which historically has resulted in downward 
movement in the markets.

I welcome the rest of the groups comments and questions. That is what we are 
here for.
	

-----Original Message-----
From:	owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx  On Behalf Of kurt kallaus
Sent:	Tuesday, July 29, 1997 1:26 PM
To:	RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject:	RE: The Sky will drop about 5%

Below Ron Kraft gives a cryptic warning of a 5 to 10% stk' mkt' fall during 
August.  He  is taciturn for now but promises a reason for his prognostication 

soon - probably as the correction becomes confirmed.  I don't know if this 
will pull some of his reasoning out of him sooner rather than later but Ron - 
is part of your reasoning for your view due to the Capital Gains Tax Cut just 
passed today.
  Personally I have expecting a 10 to 14% correction during the last half of 
this year.  Cyclically the next sell-off is due in August. I have no short 
term sell yet, but I do have turns due over the next 2 weeks of significance 
(the last mild turn was 7-21 -- a good low).  Capital Gains could be a modest 
trigger - if not then watch out before year end.  
  I will elaborate when I get a Sell signal.  
Kurt 
Sunnen@xxxxxxx


----------
From: 	owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Ronny Kraft
Sent: 	Monday, July 28, 1997 5:52 PM
To: 	RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: 	The Sky will drop about 5%

I have been viewing all of the postings in the past few weeks and have been 
formulating my opinions on the sidelines. I am professional money manager who 
manages several hedge funds. With that in mind I would like to tell all that 
will heed that 
THIS MARKET WILL CORRECT 5-10% 
in the next few weeks. That is my contribution to this group. All I ask is 
that you all remember where you heard it first. My message is being stated in 
no uncertain terms.