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Let's set aside the issue of prediction and ask another question:
How are you trading this? What is your trade plan for trading what you
predict?
To know this would be very educational. Please post to RT.
Phil
Ronny Kraft wrote:
>
> Rather than deal with the guilt of being called a "taciturn" by the honorable
> Mr. Kallaus I will give this group a small justification for my recent market
> prognostication.
> 1. Intraday high prices of the market have increased to a 21 day high.
> Nonetheless, the advance-decline oscillator and the up/down volume oscillator
> has been negative. I am reading this divergence (and rather unusual event), as
> a very strong bearish signal that by my analysis has historically been
> followed by downside price movement.
> 2. In addition the Price Phase indictor (an indicator that I affectionately
> call a MACD on crack; and an indicator that I love and use often for
> confirmation of broad based signals) is positive but volume distribution has
> started to advance. This is a nonconformation that, regardless of the type of
> market, is a bearish signal which historically has resulted in downward
> movement in the markets.
>
> I welcome the rest of the groups comments and questions. That is what we are
> here for.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx On Behalf Of kurt kallaus
> Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 1997 1:26 PM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: RE: The Sky will drop about 5%
>
> Below Ron Kraft gives a cryptic warning of a 5 to 10% stk' mkt' fall during
> August. He is taciturn for now but promises a reason for his prognostication
>
> soon - probably as the correction becomes confirmed. I don't know if this
> will pull some of his reasoning out of him sooner rather than later but Ron -
> is part of your reasoning for your view due to the Capital Gains Tax Cut just
> passed today.
> Personally I have expecting a 10 to 14% correction during the last half of
> this year. Cyclically the next sell-off is due in August. I have no short
> term sell yet, but I do have turns due over the next 2 weeks of significance
> (the last mild turn was 7-21 -- a good low). Capital Gains could be a modest
> trigger - if not then watch out before year end.
> I will elaborate when I get a Sell signal.
> Kurt
> Sunnen@xxxxxxx
>
> ----------
> From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Ronny Kraft
> Sent: Monday, July 28, 1997 5:52 PM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: The Sky will drop about 5%
>
> I have been viewing all of the postings in the past few weeks and have been
> formulating my opinions on the sidelines. I am professional money manager who
> manages several hedge funds. With that in mind I would like to tell all that
> will heed that
> THIS MARKET WILL CORRECT 5-10%
> in the next few weeks. That is my contribution to this group. All I ask is
> that you all remember where you heard it first. My message is being stated in
> no uncertain terms.
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